Bowling Green @ Central Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Tue, Nov 5, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Central Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F15 mphgusts 34Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Bowling Green

4-4 · Power #75

▲ winner

Final

Central Michigan

3-5 · Power #123

final

Closing spread

BGSU -14.5

✓ CMU W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 32–18 CMU

✓ BGSU (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -9.5

CloseBGSU -14.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBGSU -9.5

5 → BGSU

CloseBGSU -14.5

5 pts toward Bowling Green

Total

Open45.5

▲ 2

Close47.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BGSU -9.5 · closed BGSU -14.5 · moved 5 toward BGSUmodel BGSU -12

model BGSU -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–16.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 53% (55 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (54 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -9.5

CloseBGSU -14.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as a 14.5-point road favorite at CMU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BGSU won 23–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.1 against an average line of 12.5; 49.9 points a game (usually 54). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CSU @ UNM 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & total	-13	36–7	W	U44.75
Close	OHIO @ BUFF 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-9.5	20–10	W	U45
Close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Close	STAN @ VAN 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar total	-13	41–23	W	O49
Close	OHIO @ AKR 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	25–14	L	U41.75
Close	DUKE @ BC 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation	-12	38–31	L	O47.25
Close	UCF @ TEM 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-11.75	49–7	W	O52
Close	NIU @ BALL 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation	-13.5	23–25	L	O47.5
Loose	ARMY @ TLSA 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-13.5	49–7	W	O50.5
Loose	TOL @ EMU 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form	-10	29–28	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU LLLLW	3-4	43%	2-1	1-4
CMU LLWLL	3-5	38%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: BGSU away, as favorite; CMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU OUUUO	3-4	43%	4-4
CMU OUOOO	6-2	75%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 54% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%
CMU	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−5.6 →−1.8▲ 3.8#73

CMU−12.0 →−15.1▼ 3.1#122

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

BGSU

Longer bar = better

CMU

#69

Offense

Even

#79

#50

Defense

◀ BGSU better

#105

0.0 #75

Turnovers

◀ BGSU better

−1.0 #125

64 plays #95

Pace

Even

64 plays #98

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: BGSU offense

	BGSU off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #78	32.3 #114	BGSU
Yards / play	5.89 #65	6.03 #103	BGSU
PPA / play	+0.14 #69	+0.23 #121	BGSU
Success rate	44% #62	42% #80	Even

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: BGSU defense

	CMU off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #79	22.0 #43	BGSU
Yards / play	5.85 #71	5.49 #67	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #67	+0.08 #58	Even
Success rate	41% #97	38% #30	BGSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	9.4 #14	8.1 #70	17.5 #37	3.9 #111	5.8 #101	9.6 #117
CMU allowed	6.8 #104	11.0 #123	17.8 #115	4.8 #45	9.8 #123	14.5 #104

CMU scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	4.3 #101	9.9 #41	14.1 #68	7.4 #42	5.5 #108	12.9 #71
BGSU allowed	6.4 #95	5.5 #30	11.9 #63	3.4 #16	6.8 #78	10.1 #33

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.