Western Michigan @ Bowling Green: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Tue, Nov 12, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Bowling Green · Conference game

Weather at kickoff40°F6 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Western Michigan

5-4 · Power #107

final

Final

Bowling Green

5-4 · Power #75

▲ winner

Closing spread

BGSU -9.5

✓ BGSU W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 23–33 BGSU

✓ BGSU (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -8

CloseBGSU -9.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBGSU -8

1.5 → BGSU

CloseBGSU -9.5

1.5 pts toward Bowling Green

Total

Open56.5

no move

Close56.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BGSU -8 · closed BGSU -9.5 · moved 1.5 toward BGSUmodel BGSU -12

model BGSU -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 43% (83 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (92 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -8

CloseBGSU -9.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as a 9.5-point home favorite against WMU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BGSU won 31–13; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 56.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.4 against an average line of 8.5; 64.8 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs EMU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-9.25	49–52	L	O54.5
Very close	APP vs GASO 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	55–27	W	O63
Very close	UAB vs UNT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	41–21	W	O58
Very close	JXST vs LT 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9	56–17	W	O54.5
Very close	ECU vs USF 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	29–14	W	U55.5
Very close	LT vs CLT 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	42–32	W	O58.25
Very close	M-OH vs BUFF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-7	45–18	W	O58
Very close	CAL vs WSU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	6–21	L	U52.5
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-8.5	31–10	W	U63.5
Very close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	42–40	L	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU LWWWL	4-5	44%	2-3	1-3
BGSU LLLWL	3-5	38%	1-3	1-5

Venue/role: WMU away, as underdog; BGSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU OOOOO	7-2	78%	5-4
BGSU UUUOU	3-5	38%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
BGSU	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WMU 0–1 BGSU BGSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · BGSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 21 2023	Bowling Green 34 @ Western Michigan 10	BGSU -2.5	BGSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−10.3 →−10.1▲ 0.2#106

BGSU−5.6 →−1.5▲ 4.1#73

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

WMU

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#24

Offense

◀ WMU better

#67

#124

Defense

BGSU better ▶

#44

+0.6 #31

Turnovers

◀ WMU better

+0.1 #58

62 plays #118

Pace

BGSU faster ▶

64 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Even matchup

	WMU off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #32	21.0 #30	Even
Yards / play	6.55 #22	5.43 #60	WMU
PPA / play	+0.23 #24	+0.09 #61	WMU
Success rate	48% #19	38% #24	Even

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: BGSU offense

	BGSU off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #81	34.7 #123	BGSU
Yards / play	5.90 #62	6.41 #121	BGSU
PPA / play	+0.15 #57	+0.23 #121	BGSU
Success rate	44% #69	50% #130	BGSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	7.3 #38	11.6 #16	18.9 #24	7.3 #41	7.1 #65	14.4 #50
BGSU allowed	5.7 #76	5.7 #34	11.3 #54	3.0 #11	6.7 #76	9.7 #24

BGSU scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	8.7 #22	7.9 #75	16.6 #44	4.2 #107	5.9 #96	10.1 #112
WMU allowed	6.9 #105	10.8 #120	17.7 #116	8.4 #118	8.6 #108	17.0 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.