East Carolina @ Tulsa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Thu, Nov 14, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Tulsa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

East Carolina

5-4 · Power #92

▲ winner

Final

Tulsa

3-6 · Power #131

final

Closing spread

ECU -16.5

✓ TLSA W

Total

63.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

ECU 36–21 TLSA

✓ ECU (86%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -13

CloseECU -16.5

Total61.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenECU -13

3.5 → ECU

CloseECU -16.5

3.5 pts toward East Carolina

Total

Open61.5

▲ 2

Close63.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ECU -13 · closed ECU -16.5 · moved 3.5 toward ECUmodel ECU -10.5

model ECU -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 14.5–18.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 55% (42 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (58 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -13

CloseECU -16.5

Total61.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ECU as a 16.5-point road favorite at TLSA, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: ECU won 38–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 63.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.9 against an average line of 16.3; 55.7 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UL @ USM 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-17.5	23–13	L	U57.5
Close	BUFF @ AKR 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-13.25	45–10	W	U58
Close	MEM @ TEM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-13.5	45–21	W	O64.25
Close	USU @ NMSU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	35–13	W	U72.25
Close	TTU @ KU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	41–14	W	U68
Close	BALL @ AKR 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation	-20	31–25	L	U58
Close	MRSH @ CLT 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-14.5	49–28	W	O62
Close	LIB @ MTSU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-12.5	37–17	W	U55
Close	WSU @ SDSU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-17	29–26	L	U56.5
Close	UL @ ARST 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-18	28–27	L	U70

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ECU WLWWW	6-3	67%	2-2	4-2
TLSA LLLWL	3-6	33%	1-3	3-5

Venue/role: ECU away, as favorite; TLSA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ECU UOOOO	5-4	56%	5-4
TLSA OOUOO	5-4	56%	3-6

Went over in Q4. Of 97 earlier overs in games with totals 59.5–67.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ECU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
TLSA	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ECU 0–1 TLSA TLSA leads · 1 game since 2023 · TLSA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Tulsa 29 @ East Carolina 27	ECU -3	TLSA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ECU−7.2 →−6.9▲ 0.3#97

TLSA−9.9 →−19.8▼ 9.9#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ECU

Longer bar = better

TLSA

#55

Offense

◀ ECU better

#112

#56

Defense

◀ ECU better

#107

−0.4 #100

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #99

67 plays #71

Pace

TLSA faster ▶

73 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: ECU offense

	ECU off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	32.4 #36	38.4 #132	ECU
Yards / play	6.26 #41	6.69 #129	ECU
PPA / play	+0.14 #61	+0.23 #119	ECU
Success rate	42% #82	40% #49	TLSA

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: ECU defense

	TLSA off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #99	26.8 #84	Even
Yards / play	5.24 #109	5.19 #44	ECU
PPA / play	+0.05 #108	+0.09 #63	ECU
Success rate	35% #132	38% #33	ECU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ECU scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	10.0 #10	6.6 #107	16.6 #46	9.9 #12	6.0 #92	15.9 #31
TLSA allowed	8.1 #117	13.9 #132	22.0 #130	10.4 #133	6.0 #58	16.4 #118

TLSA scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	3.4 #117	6.8 #98	10.2 #117	6.1 #63	8.1 #39	14.2 #54
ECU allowed	5.3 #65	8.8 #93	14.1 #89	5.8 #71	6.9 #78	12.7 #74

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.