Ball State @ Buffalo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Tue, Nov 12, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Buffalo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff39°F4 mphgusts 12DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Ball State

3-6 · Power #126

final

Final

Buffalo

5-4 · Power #105

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUFF -3.5

✓ BALL W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 99 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 25–29 BUFF

✓ BUFF (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -6.5

CloseBUFF -3.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUFF -6.5

3 → BALL

CloseBUFF -3.5

3 pts toward Ball State

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUFF -6.5 · closed BUFF -3.5 · moved 3 toward BALLmodel BUFF -6.5

model BUFF -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (179 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 46% (76 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -6.5

CloseBUFF -3.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUFF as a 3.5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BUFF won 51–48; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 99 points went over 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 4.9; 53.2 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	RICE vs CLT 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4	20–21	L	U48
Very close	WMU vs CMU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	38–28	W	O57.5
Very close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & situation	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Close	ARMY vs ULM 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & total	-6.5	48–24	W	O55.5
Close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Close	LT vs UTEP 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-6.5	14–10	L	U49
Close	OHIO vs BUFF 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	47–16	W	O46.5
Close	ODU vs CLT 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-8.5	56–34	W	O55.75
Close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	14–27	L	U50
Close	MRSH vs WMU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	27–20	W	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL WLWWW	6-2	75%	2-2	5-1
BUFF LWLLW	5-4	56%	3-1	3-0

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; BUFF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL OOUOU	6-2	75%	3-6
BUFF OOOOO	6-3	67%	5-4

Went over in Q3. Of 310 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	3-7 30%	7-2 78%	6-3 67%
BUFF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−11.2 →−16.9▼ 5.7#124

BUFF−12.2 →−13.2▼ 1.0#118

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

BALL

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#95

Offense

Even

#105

#127

Defense

BUFF better ▶

#84

0.0 #67

Turnovers

BUFF better ▶

+0.7 #27

67 plays #68

Pace

◀ BALL faster

65 plays #88

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Even matchup

	BALL off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #99	29.0 #97	Even
Yards / play	5.02 #120	5.64 #75	BUFF
PPA / play	+0.07 #101	+0.13 #81	Even
Success rate	44% #61	43% #81	Even

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: BUFF offense

	BUFF off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #101	38.9 #133	BUFF
Yards / play	5.05 #117	7.22 #136	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #82	+0.24 #123	BUFF
Success rate	37% #121	46% #116	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	6.9 #47	5.4 #123	12.3 #94	5.6 #81	6.8 #76	12.3 #85
BUFF allowed	4.1 #43	9.6 #106	13.7 #86	5.6 #65	9.8 #124	15.3 #112

BUFF scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	5.7 #75	4.3 #126	10.0 #118	8.0 #32	5.9 #96	13.9 #59
BALL allowed	8.6 #127	10.0 #115	18.6 #121	6.0 #77	14.3 #134	20.3 #134

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.