Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Wed, Nov 20, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Eastern Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff39°F8 mphgusts 17DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Buffalo

6-4 · Power #105

▲ winner

Final

Eastern Michigan

5-5 · Power #120

final

Closing spread

EMU -1.5

✓ BUFF W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 25–27 EMU

✗ EMU (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenEMU -1.5

CloseEMU -1.5

Total49.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenEMU -1.5

no move

CloseEMU -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▲ 4

Close53.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened EMU -1.5 · unchangedmodel EMU -4

model EMU -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 47% (119 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenEMU -1.5

CloseEMU -1.5

Total49.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like EMU as a 1.5-point home favorite against BUFF, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: BUFF won 37–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 53.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.3 against an average line of 3.2; 46.7 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU vs CMU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	38–28	W	O57.5
Very close	LT vs NMSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	24–27	L	U55
Close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Close	BUFF vs BALL 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	51–48	L	O55.5
Close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-4	24–0	W	U55.5
Close	USM vs ULM 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–7	W	U56.5
Close	APP vs MRSH 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	31–9	W	U57.5
Close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF WLLWL	5-5	50%	2-3	2-4
EMU LWLWL	7-3	70%	4-1	3-1

Venue/role: BUFF away, as underdog; EMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF OOOOO	7-3	70%	6-4
EMU OOUOU	5-5	50%	5-5

Went over in Q4. Of 326 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFF	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
EMU	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BUFF 0–1 EMU EMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · EMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 21 2023	Eastern Michigan 24 @ Buffalo 11	BUFF -5.5	EMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−12.2 →−13.5▼ 1.3#119

EMU−13.3 →−12.1▲ 1.2#114

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

BUFF

Longer bar = better

EMU

#98

Offense

Even

#100

#93

Defense

Even

#96

+0.4 #40

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #37

66 plays #80

Pace

EMU faster ▶

77 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUFF off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #83	27.2 #84	Even
Yards / play	5.16 #117	6.34 #117	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #79	+0.10 #69	Even
Success rate	39% #111	46% #115	Even

When EMU has the ball

Even matchup

	EMU off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #78	30.9 #106	EMU
Yards / play	4.96 #121	5.78 #86	BUFF
PPA / play	+0.04 #113	+0.14 #85	BUFF
Success rate	42% #88	43% #93	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	5.8 #68	5.6 #121	11.4 #105	7.9 #34	6.7 #76	14.6 #48
EMU allowed	2.9 #18	10.0 #111	12.9 #74	4.3 #39	9.7 #123	14.0 #97

EMU scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	5.8 #68	6.4 #110	12.2 #93	6.9 #49	7.6 #50	14.5 #49
BUFF allowed	4.4 #47	10.7 #118	15.1 #98	5.7 #69	9.8 #124	15.5 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.