Purdue @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Fri, Nov 22, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Michigan State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff43°F14 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Purdue

1-9 · Power #117

final

Final

Michigan State

4-6 · Power #70

▲ winner

Closing spread

MSU -14.5

✓ PUR W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

PUR 17–31 MSU

✓ MSU (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMSU -13.5

CloseMSU -14.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMSU -13.5

1 → MSU

CloseMSU -14.5

1 pt toward Michigan State

Total

Open48.5

▲ 2

Close50.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MSU -13.5 · closed MSU -14.5 · moved 1 toward MSUmodel MSU -14.5 matches the line

model MSU -14.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 89%, covered 54% (72 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 54% (98 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMSU -13.5

CloseMSU -14.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MSU as a 14.5-point home favorite against PUR, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: MSU won 24–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 50.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 16.7 against an average line of 14.2; 57.1 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT vs DUKE 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-13	48–17	W	O50.5
Very close	WSU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.75	44–18	W	O52.5
Very close	MSU vs IU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12	31–39	L	O47.25
Close	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25
Close	TROY vs ULM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-15	34–16	W	O48.5
Close	TOL vs CMU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-15	37–10	W	U52
Close	WSU vs CSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-17	38–7	W	U52.25
Close	WYO vs HAW 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	42–9	W	O45
Close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Close	WYO vs HAW 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-13	14–38	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR WLLLL	2-8	20%	1-3	1-7
MSU WWLLL	4-6	40%	1-4	0-2

Venue/role: PUR away, as underdog; MSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR OUOUO	6-4	60%	1-9
MSU UOOOO	5-5	50%	4-6

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PUR	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
MSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PUR+1.0 →−10.9▼ 11.9#109

MSU−3.8 →0.0▲ 3.8#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

PUR

Longer bar = better

MSU

#100

Offense

Even

#101

#133

Defense

MSU better ▶

#71

−0.7 #117

Turnovers

Even

−0.9 #124

57 plays #136

Pace

MSU faster ▶

63 plays #110

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: MSU defense

	PUR off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	17.2 #131	25.5 #72	MSU
Yards / play	5.64 #79	5.41 #60	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #104	+0.14 #87	Even
Success rate	42% #84	41% #65	Even

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: MSU offense

	MSU off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	19.4 #124	38.9 #132	Even
Yards / play	5.48 #90	6.92 #133	MSU
PPA / play	+0.05 #110	+0.39 #137	MSU
Success rate	43% #80	50% #131	MSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

PUR scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	1.0 #134	4.0 #128	5.0 #134	4.4 #102	7.2 #65	11.6 #91
MSU allowed	3.8 #35	8.1 #81	11.9 #61	7.3 #110	6.3 #63	13.6 #92

MSU scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	5.5 #78	6.3 #112	11.8 #99	2.3 #130	5.3 #113	7.6 #129
PUR allowed	9.0 #127	9.4 #102	18.4 #120	8.6 #122	10.6 #128	19.2 #130

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.