Iowa @ Maryland: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Maryland · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F16 mphgusts 33DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Iowa

6-4 · Power #30

▲ winner

Final

Maryland

4-6 · Power #62

final

Closing spread

IOWA -4.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 25–20 MD

✓ IOWA (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -6.5

CloseIOWA -4.5

Total45.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIOWA -6.5

2 → MD

CloseIOWA -4.5

2 pts toward Maryland

Total

Open45.5

▼ 6

Close39.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -6.5 · closed IOWA -4.5 · moved 2 toward MDmodel IOWA -4.5 matches the line

model IOWA -4.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 46% (78 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (88 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -6.5

CloseIOWA -4.5

Total45.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 4.5-point road favorite at MD, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 29–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 42 points went over 39.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.5 against an average line of 3.8; 42.7 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CLEM @ ND 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	14–35	L	O43.5
Close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.75	17–24	L	U45
Close	WIS @ ILL 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-3	25–21	W	O41
Close	NCSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-2	26–6	W	U43
Close	MD @ NEB 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	13–10	W	U42
Close	AUB @ SC 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & situation	-7	17–21	L	U45.25
Close	MINN @ RUTG 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-6.5	19–26	L	O44.5
Loose	WVU @ HOU 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3	39–41	L	O49.5
Loose	MSU @ IU 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3.5	20–15	W	U48.5
Loose	MINN @ UCLA 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread	-3.5	21–17	W	U39

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA WLWWL	4-5	44%	1-3	4-4
MD LWLWL	3-6	33%	2-4	2-2

Venue/role: IOWA away, as favorite; MD home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA OOOOU	7-2	78%	6-4
MD OOOUU	7-2	78%	4-6

Went over in Q4. Of 92 earlier overs in games with totals 35.5–43.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	7-2 78%
MD	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+2.5 →+9.6▲ 7.1#24

MD+6.6 →+2.8▼ 3.8#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

IOWA

Longer bar = better

#63

Offense

◀ IOWA better

#90

#36

Defense

◀ IOWA better

#87

+1.0 #12

Turnovers

◀ IOWA better

0.0 #69

59 plays #130

Pace

MD faster ▶

75 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: IOWA offense

	IOWA off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #56	29.2 #97	IOWA
Yards / play	5.86 #65	5.73 #82	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #62	+0.13 #81	Even
Success rate	43% #70	43% #89	Even

When MD has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	MD off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	26.4 #87	18.2 #15	IOWA
Yards / play	5.62 #81	5.11 #34	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.07 #103	+0.02 #26	IOWA
Success rate	42% #89	42% #68	IOWA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	3.7 #114	5.5 #123	9.2 #120	10.9 #6	9.3 #17	20.2 #3
MD allowed	5.2 #72	9.9 #108	15.1 #98	5.3 #60	8.8 #114	14.1 #100

MD scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	5.1 #85	6.8 #104	11.9 #99	6.1 #65	8.4 #30	14.5 #51
IOWA allowed	1.6 #3	6.8 #55	8.4 #14	4.9 #49	4.9 #31	9.8 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.