USC @ UCLA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at UCLA · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

USC

5-5 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

UCLA

4-6 · Power #48

final

Closing spread

USC -4.5

✓ USC W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 29–24 UCLA

✓ USC (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -5

CloseUSC -4.5

Total50.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -5

0.5 → UCLA

CloseUSC -4.5

0.5 pts toward UCLA

Total

Open50.5

▲ 2

Close52.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -5 · closed USC -4.5 · moved 0.5 toward UCLAmodel USC -8.5

model USC -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 47% (83 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -5

CloseUSC -4.5

Total50.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 4.5-point road favorite at UCLA, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: USC won 19–13; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.4 against an average line of 4.7; 53.4 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU @ ISU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	14–27	L	U52.5
Very close	FSU @ MIA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	45–3	W	U54
Very close	LSU @ FLA 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	16–27	L	U56.5
Very close	LOU @ BC 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	31–27	L	O54
Very close	ARK @ MIZ 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	27–29	L	O55.5
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	45–18	W	O56
Very close	UNC @ NCSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	20–39	L	O55.5
Very close	CLEM @ VT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	24–14	W	U54.5
Very close	MISS @ TA&M 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	31–28	P	O55.25
Very close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–38	L	O49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC WLWLW	6-4	60%	0-4	4-4
UCLA LWWWL	5-4	56%	2-2	5-3

Venue/role: USC away, as favorite; UCLA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC OOOUU	5-5	50%	5-5
UCLA UOOUO	4-5	44%	4-6

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
UCLA	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USC 54–34 UCLA (7 tied) USC leads · 95 games since 1929 · USC has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	UCLA 38 @ USC 20	USC -5	UCLA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+10.9 →+13.9▲ 3.0#15

UCLA+7.7 →+3.6▼ 4.1#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

USC

Longer bar = better

UCLA

#31

Offense

◀ USC better

#111

#63

Defense

◀ USC better

#90

−0.2 #84

Turnovers

◀ USC better

−0.5 #108

69 plays #46

Pace

◀ USC faster

61 plays #124

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #52	27.1 #81	USC
Yards / play	6.37 #34	5.47 #63	USC
PPA / play	+0.23 #24	+0.14 #91	USC
Success rate	49% #12	47% #125	USC

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: USC defense

	UCLA off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #127	22.0 #40	USC
Yards / play	5.26 #110	5.58 #69	USC
PPA / play	+0.07 #99	+0.07 #56	USC
Success rate	39% #109	43% #86	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USC scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	5.2 #86	9.8 #42	15.0 #55	8.3 #21	7.0 #67	15.3 #42
UCLA allowed	5.9 #87	7.2 #62	13.1 #76	6.0 #76	8.0 #101	14.0 #95

UCLA scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	3.0 #127	7.8 #79	10.8 #112	4.0 #114	4.0 #130	8.0 #126
USC allowed	4.0 #36	7.4 #66	11.4 #52	4.8 #47	5.5 #43	10.3 #34

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.