Cincinnati @ Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Kansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F10 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati

5-5 · Power #45

final

Final

Kansas State

7-3 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -7.5

✓ KSU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 22–30 KSU

✓ KSU (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -9

CloseKSU -7.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKSU -9

1.5 → CIN

CloseKSU -7.5

1.5 pts toward Cincinnati

Total

Open52.5

▲ 2

Close54.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KSU -9 · closed KSU -7.5 · moved 1.5 toward CINmodel KSU -9

model KSU -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 55% (118 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (124 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -9

CloseKSU -7.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 7.5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 41–15; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.1 against an average line of 7.6; 57.1 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU vs CIN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	34–17	W	U52.5
Very close	KSU vs ASU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-7.5	14–24	L	U51.5
Very close	MIA vs VT 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	38–26	W	O55.5
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	42–14	W	U58.5
Very close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	31–16	W	U52
Very close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10	29–27	L	P56
Very close	WAKE vs SYR 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	45–35	W	O58.5
Very close	AUB vs MSST 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.75	34–43	L	O51
Very close	TROY vs APP 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	49–23	W	O52.5
Very close	PSU vs MD 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	30–0	W	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN WWLLL	5-4	56%	3-2	3-2
KSU LWLLL	3-7	30%	2-3	3-7

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; KSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN UUOOU	4-5	44%	5-5
KSU OOOUU	5-5	50%	7-3

Went over in Q4. Of 339 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%
KSU	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CIN 5–3 KSU CIN leads · 8 games since 1951 · CIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−1.7 →+5.9▲ 7.6#40

KSU+11.5 →+11.1▼ 0.4#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

CIN

Longer bar = better

KSU

#45

Offense

Even

#34

#74

Defense

KSU better ▶

#37

−0.1 #81

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #70

68 plays #59

Pace

◀ CIN faster

65 plays #88

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #75	21.9 #39	KSU
Yards / play	6.34 #35	5.32 #51	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #36	+0.04 #41	Even
Success rate	46% #35	37% #17	Even

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: KSU offense

	KSU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #56	23.4 #57	Even
Yards / play	6.49 #22	6.10 #106	KSU
PPA / play	+0.22 #27	+0.09 #61	KSU
Success rate	46% #32	42% #72	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CIN scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	10.0 #7	6.8 #102	16.8 #36	4.7 #100	5.9 #102	10.6 #110
KSU allowed	4.1 #46	8.1 #80	12.2 #65	4.0 #28	5.7 #49	9.7 #29

KSU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	5.4 #77	7.7 #82	13.1 #82	9.1 #16	7.3 #55	16.4 #26
CIN allowed	4.4 #52	6.7 #52	11.1 #46	6.5 #91	5.8 #51	12.3 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.