Iowa State @ Utah: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Utah · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Iowa State

8-2 · Power #24

▲ winner

Final

Utah

4-6 · Power #49

final

Closing spread

ISU -3.5

✓ UTAH W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 22–18 UTAH

✓ ISU (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -6

CloseISU -3.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -6

2.5 → UTAH

CloseISU -3.5

2.5 pts toward Utah

Total

Open42.5

no move

Close42.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -6 · closed ISU -3.5 · moved 2.5 toward UTAHmodel ISU -4

model ISU -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 46% (127 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (92 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -6

CloseISU -3.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 3.5-point road favorite at UTAH, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 31–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 3.8; 41.7 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.25	42–16	W	O44
Very close	BSU @ SDSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	16–27	L	U44.25
Very close	WIS @ ILL 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	25–21	W	O41
Very close	MD @ RUTG 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	42–24	W	O45.5
Very close	AUB @ SC 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	17–21	L	U45.25
Close	OKST @ WVU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–3	W	U49
Close	BYU @ UTAH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	22–21	L	O40.5
Close	TA&M @ LSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.25	24–27	L	O46.75
Close	UK @ SC 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	16–10	W	U49
Close	KSU @ ISU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-1	10–9	P	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU WLLLW	6-4	60%	3-1	5-4
UTAH LLLWL	3-7	30%	2-3	1-1

Venue/role: ISU away, as favorite; UTAH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU UOUOU	5-5	50%	8-2
UTAH UUUOO	3-7	30%	4-6

Went over in Q4. Of 181 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
UTAH	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU+4.2 →+11.2▲ 7.0#19

UTAH+6.4 →+2.9▼ 3.5#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ISU

Longer bar = better

UTAH

#53

Offense

◀ ISU better

#115

#51

Defense

UTAH better ▶

#21

+0.8 #19

Turnovers

◀ ISU better

−0.8 #120

70 plays #34

Pace

◀ ISU faster

66 plays #76

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	ISU off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	31.4 #45	20.3 #28	Even
Yards / play	6.25 #39	5.11 #39	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #34	−0.01 #14	Even
Success rate	41% #93	34% #2	UTAH

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	UTAH off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #110	18.6 #18	ISU
Yards / play	5.33 #104	5.35 #53	ISU
PPA / play	0.00 #121	+0.06 #53	ISU
Success rate	37% #123	42% #80	ISU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	5.8 #69	7.3 #92	13.1 #82	7.2 #44	11.1 #5	18.3 #9
UTAH allowed	3.6 #26	5.5 #22	9.1 #23	4.2 #31	7.0 #75	11.2 #52

UTAH scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	4.3 #101	9.1 #50	13.4 #78	4.9 #97	4.4 #127	9.3 #120
ISU allowed	5.9 #86	5.3 #19	11.2 #47	3.4 #16	4.0 #12	7.4 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.