Texas A&M @ Auburn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Auburn · Conference game

Weather at kickoff49°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Texas A&M

8-2 · Power #19

final

Final

Auburn

4-6 · Power #33

▲ winner

Closing spread

TA&M -2.5

✓ AUB W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 84 pts

Model before kickoff

TA&M 25–23 AUB

✗ TA&M (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -2.5

CloseTA&M -2.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -2.5

no move

CloseTA&M -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -2.5 · unchangedmodel TA&M -2

model TA&M -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 45% (142 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -2.5

CloseTA&M -2.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 2.5-point road favorite at AUB, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: AUB won 43–41 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 84 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2 against an average line of 3.3; 48.8 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OKST @ WVU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–3	W	U49
Very close	MINN @ ILL 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	25–17	W	U47
Very close	MD @ RUTG 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	42–24	W	O45.5
Very close	MSU @ PUR 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	29–40	L	O53.5
Very close	TA&M @ LSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.25	24–27	L	O46.75
Very close	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	16–24	L	U52
Very close	CLEM @ LOU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Very close	BSU @ SDSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	16–27	L	U44.25
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Very close	ISU @ OKST 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.75	14–20	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TA&M WLWLL	3-6	33%	1-2	3-6
AUB WWWLW	6-4	60%	3-4	3-0

Venue/role: TA&M away, as favorite; AUB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M OOOOU	6-3	67%	8-2
AUB UUUUO	4-6	40%	4-6

Went over in Q3. Of 322 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&M	8-2 80%	3-6 33%	6-3 67%
AUB	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TA&M 9–7 AUB TA&M leads · 16 games since 1911 · TA&M has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Auburn 10 @ Texas A&M 27	TA&M -10	TA&M W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TA&M+13.5 →+12.6▼ 0.9#16

AUB+7.1 →+8.3▲ 1.2#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TA&M

Longer bar = better

AUB

#44

Offense

Even

#48

#25

Defense

Even

#17

+0.4 #43

Turnovers

◀ TA&M better

−1.1 #135

67 plays #66

Pace

◀ TA&M faster

64 plays #108

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: AUB defense

	TA&M off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #43	18.7 #20	AUB
Yards / play	6.15 #44	4.70 #10	AUB
PPA / play	+0.18 #45	+0.03 #30	Even
Success rate	45% #43	35% #6	AUB

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: TA&M defense

	AUB off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #74	19.4 #21	TA&M
Yards / play	6.74 #12	5.30 #48	AUB
PPA / play	+0.13 #72	+0.02 #26	TA&M
Success rate	46% #34	35% #5	TA&M

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TA&M scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	8.5 #18	10.2 #36	18.7 #24	6.8 #53	6.1 #97	12.9 #72
AUB allowed	5.1 #70	2.7 #2	7.8 #11	3.0 #7	7.9 #100	10.9 #44

AUB scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	6.2 #55	7.5 #86	13.7 #73	7.7 #35	6.2 #93	13.9 #60
TA&M allowed	4.8 #59	2.9 #4	7.7 #10	5.2 #56	6.5 #70	11.7 #57

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.