Ole Miss @ Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Ole Miss

8-2 · Power #3

final

Final

Florida

5-5 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -13.5

✓ FLA W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

MISS 34–21 FLA

✗ MISS (83%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -10

CloseMISS -13.5

Total55.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -10

3.5 → MISS

CloseMISS -13.5

3.5 pts toward Ole Miss

Total

Open55.5

▲ 2

Close57.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -10 · closed MISS -13.5 · moved 3.5 toward MISSmodel MISS -14

model MISS -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 48% (50 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (64 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -10

CloseMISS -13.5

Total55.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 13.5-point road favorite at FLA, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: FLA won 24–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 57.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 14.2; 64.2 points a game (usually 54.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FLA @ LSU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-12.5	42–49	L	O61
Close	OU @ KSU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-12.5	37–31	L	O53
Close	OSU @ WIS 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-14.5	24–10	L	U48
Close	MICH @ MD 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-16	59–18	W	O57.75
Close	PITT @ SYR 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-12.25	31–14	W	U58.25
Close	ALA @ ARK 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-17	49–26	W	O61
Close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Close	ORE @ CAL 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation	-16.75	42–24	W	O56.5
Loose	TEX @ TCU 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & total	-12.5	29–26	L	U56.25
Loose	CIN @ ECU 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form & situation	-14.5	35–13	W	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MISS WLLWW	7-3	70%	3-1	6-3
FLA WWWLW	5-4	56%	3-3	5-3

Venue/role: MISS away, as favorite; FLA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS UUUOU	2-8	20%	8-2
FLA UOOOU	5-4	56%	5-5

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISS	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%
FLA	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MISS 13–14 FLA (1 tied) FLA leads · 28 games since 1926 · FLA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+12.8 →+24.0▲ 11.2#2

FLA+8.5 →+8.5–#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MISS

Longer bar = better

FLA

Offense

◀ MISS better

#62

Defense

◀ MISS better

#81

+0.9 #16

Turnovers

◀ MISS better

−0.1 #75

71 plays #20

Pace

◀ MISS faster

60 plays #127

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	40.7 #4	26.4 #81	MISS
Yards / play	7.58 #2	5.51 #64	MISS
PPA / play	+0.36 #5	+0.12 #78	MISS
Success rate	48% #15	44% #102	MISS

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	FLA off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #66	12.9 #5	MISS
Yards / play	6.30 #37	4.36 #5	MISS
PPA / play	+0.09 #92	−0.06 #5	MISS
Success rate	44% #52	36% #11	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MISS scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	12.3 #2	11.6 #14	23.9 #1	11.2 #4	5.3 #113	16.5 #25
FLA allowed	4.4 #50	8.1 #83	12.5 #70	8.5 #121	4.8 #27	13.3 #82

FLA scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	3.7 #114	9.2 #48	12.9 #84	6.2 #61	8.9 #20	15.1 #45
MISS allowed	2.3 #11	5.0 #16	7.3 #7	2.6 #7	2.4 #1	5.0 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.