Vanderbilt @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 7:45 PM ESTWeek 13 · at LSU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Vanderbilt

6-4 · Power #53

final

Final

LSU

6-4 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -9.5

✓ VAN W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

VAN 23–34 LSU

✓ LSU (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -9

CloseLSU -9.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLSU -9

0.5 → LSU

CloseLSU -9.5

0.5 pts toward LSU

Total

Open54.5

▼ 2

Close52.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LSU -9 · closed LSU -9.5 · moved 0.5 toward LSUmodel LSU -14.5

model LSU -14.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 44% (92 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -9

CloseLSU -9.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 9.5-point home favorite against VAN, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LSU won 24–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 8.7; 51.1 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FLA vs MIZ 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10.75	24–17	L	U53.5
Very close	VT vs BC 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-8.5	42–21	W	O47.5
Close	FLA vs SC 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-8	38–6	W	U58
Close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Close	TCU vs BYU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-5	44–11	W	O52.5
Close	TTU vs HOU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-8.5	49–28	W	O51.5
Close	AUB vs VAN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	7–17	L	U48
Close	NCST vs SYR 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-11.5	41–17	W	O49.5
Close	MIA vs DUKE 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-10	21–45	L	O59
Close	PITT vs UVA 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	19–24	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN WLWWL	7-3	70%	3-1	6-1
LSU WWLLL	3-6	33%	2-2	2-4

Venue/role: VAN away, as underdog; LSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN UUUUU	5-5	50%	6-4
LSU UUOUU	3-6	33%	6-4

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VAN	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
LSU	6-4 60%	3-6 33%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN−6.1 →+3.5▲ 9.6#54

LSU+17.5 →+14.2▼ 3.3#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

VAN

Longer bar = better

LSU

#76

Offense

LSU better ▶

#54

#80

Defense

Even

#82

+0.6 #31

Turnovers

◀ VAN better

−0.2 #86

62 plays #116

Pace

LSU faster ▶

71 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Even matchup

	VAN off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #67	25.1 #70	Even
Yards / play	5.32 #105	5.94 #96	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #53	+0.16 #101	VAN
Success rate	43% #79	41% #61	Even

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: LSU offense

	LSU off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #60	21.7 #37	VAN
Yards / play	6.05 #51	5.77 #89	LSU
PPA / play	+0.16 #49	+0.15 #95	LSU
Success rate	44% #54	44% #98	LSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	5.7 #72	7.8 #78	13.5 #75	4.4 #108	8.7 #33	13.1 #71
LSU allowed	5.2 #74	7.8 #71	13.0 #73	4.7 #43	7.1 #81	11.8 #58

LSU scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	6.0 #59	10.3 #33	16.3 #39	5.5 #78	6.7 #75	12.2 #83
VAN allowed	3.8 #35	5.0 #15	8.8 #16	6.8 #101	5.1 #33	11.9 #59

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.