UTEP @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Tennessee

Weather at kickoff49°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

UTEP

2-8 · Power #128

final

Final

Tennessee

8-2 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

TENN -41.5

✓ TENN W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

UTEP 5–47 TENN

✓ TENN (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -41.5

CloseTENN -41.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTENN -41.5

no move

CloseTENN -41.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TENN -41.5 · unchangedmodel TENN -44

model TENN -44

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -41.5

CloseTENN -41.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 41.5-point home favorite against UTEP, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 56–0; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 44.5 against an average line of 39; 52.5 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FLA vs VAN 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-39	42–0	W	U60
Close	ALA vs USM 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar total	-45	63–14	W	O57.75
Close	CLEM vs CONN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-40.5	44–7	L	O50.5
Close	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5
Close	TA&M vs NMSU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation	-38.5	38–3	L	U54.5
Close	PSU vs MASS 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-42	63–0	W	O55
Close	OSU vs PUR 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-37.5	45–0	W	U55.5
Loose	MISS vs ULM 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & season form	-36	35–3	L	U60.5
Loose	UGA vs VAN 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar total	-37.5	55–0	W	U56.5
Loose	NCST vs CONN 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form	-38.5	41–10	L	O47.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP LWWLW	4-5	44%	2-2	3-3
TENN LWLLL	5-5	50%	3-3	4-4

Venue/role: UTEP away, as underdog; TENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP OOUUO	4-5	44%	2-8
TENN UUOUO	5-5	50%	8-2

Went over in Q4. Of 330 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEP	2-8 20%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%
TENN	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTEP−11.5 →−17.7▼ 6.2#128

TENN+13.9 →+18.8▲ 4.9#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

UTEP

Longer bar = better

TENN

#125

Offense

TENN better ▶

#36

#69

Defense

TENN better ▶

0.0 #66

Turnovers

TENN better ▶

+0.3 #48

67 plays #64

Pace

TENN faster ▶

75 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	UTEP off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	19.2 #125	14.4 #8	TENN
Yards / play	4.93 #125	4.46 #6	TENN
PPA / play	−0.02 #125	−0.06 #4	TENN
Success rate	38% #123	36% #9	TENN

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #18	29.7 #99	TENN
Yards / play	6.10 #46	5.66 #74	TENN
PPA / play	+0.17 #48	+0.08 #58	Even
Success rate	46% #30	40% #45	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UTEP scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	5.1 #85	4.1 #127	9.2 #121	4.7 #97	3.8 #132	8.5 #125
TENN allowed	1.6 #4	3.7 #6	5.3 #2	4.1 #30	5.0 #30	9.1 #19

TENN scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	9.5 #11	9.8 #41	19.3 #20	9.5 #13	6.1 #92	15.6 #35
UTEP allowed	6.5 #100	8.1 #82	14.6 #92	8.4 #121	5.7 #48	14.1 #100

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.