Western Kentucky @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Liberty · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F13 mphgusts 34DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Western Kentucky

7-3 · Power #103

final

Final

Liberty

7-2 · Power #95

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -1.5

✓ LIB W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 27–28 LIB

✓ LIB (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -1.5

CloseLIB -1.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWKU -1.5

3 → LIB

CloseLIB -1.5

3 pts toward Liberty

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Close55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WKU -1.5 · closed LIB -1.5 · moved 3 toward LIBmodel LIB -3.5

model LIB -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 46% (121 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (102 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -1.5

CloseLIB -1.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 1.5-point home favorite against WKU, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 38–21; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 56%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Wins above normal, covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 5.7 against an average line of 2.4; 52.5 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB vs JXST 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	21–31	L	U64
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Very close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1	38–19	W	O53.5
Close	CSU vs SJSU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	31–24	W	U55.5
Close	SC vs UK 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–14	W	U52.5
Close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Close	COLO vs BAY 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	38–31	W	O52.5
Close	MEM vs BOIS 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	35–32	L	O59.5
Close	UNT vs UTEP 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-0.5	20–17	W	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU WWLLL	6-4	60%	3-2	3-1
LIB LLLWL	2-7	22%	1-4	2-7

Venue/role: WKU away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU OUUOU	4-6	40%	7-3
LIB UOUUO	4-5	44%	7-2

Went over in Q4. Of 323 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
LIB	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WKU 0–3 LIB LIB leads · 3 games since 2020 · LIB has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 24 2023	Liberty 42 @ Western Kentucky 29	LIB -4	LIB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU−5.2 →−5.2–#91

LIB+3.4 →−5.3▼ 8.7#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

WKU

Longer bar = better

LIB

#58

Offense

LIB better ▶

#29

#60

Defense

Even

#55

+0.4 #40

Turnovers

◀ WKU better

−0.2 #88

65 plays #91

Pace

LIB faster ▶

70 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #67	23.9 #63	Even
Yards / play	6.00 #56	5.54 #65	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #51	+0.05 #42	Even
Success rate	44% #56	40% #50	Even

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #42	21.1 #36	Even
Yards / play	6.33 #35	5.61 #70	LIB
PPA / play	+0.21 #32	+0.07 #54	LIB
Success rate	50% #7	42% #78	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	8.7 #19	7.4 #87	16.1 #46	4.3 #106	7.6 #50	11.9 #89
LIB allowed	6.8 #106	5.7 #28	12.4 #70	4.2 #35	6.6 #71	10.8 #44

LIB scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	4.6 #93	9.4 #48	14.0 #67	4.9 #94	10.9 #7	15.8 #31
WKU allowed	4.5 #52	6.2 #42	10.7 #38	5.9 #76	4.5 #21	10.4 #37

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.