Jacksonville State @ Western Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Western Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff37°F2 mphgusts 8DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Jacksonville State

8-3 · Power #81

final

Final

Western Kentucky

7-4 · Power #103

▲ winner

Closing spread

JXST -0.5

✓ WKU W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

JXST 31–31 WKU

✗ JXST (51%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -2

CloseJXST -0.5

Total60.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWKU -2

2.5 → JXST

CloseJXST -0.5

2.5 pts toward Jacksonville State

Total

Open60.5

▲ 2

Close62.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WKU -2 · closed JXST -0.5 · moved 2.5 toward JXSTmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 50% (101 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (109 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -2

CloseJXST -0.5

Total60.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 0.5-point road favorite at WKU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: WKU won 19–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 62.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5 against an average line of 2.7; 53.8 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH @ EMU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	12–13	L	U58.5
Very close	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Very close	M-OH @ KENT 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-0.5	47–48	L	O67
Close	GT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	31–27	L	U60.5
Close	BOIS @ UNLV 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	44–20	W	O62
Close	APP @ CCU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-3	28–35	L	U65.25
Close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Close	MRSH @ FAU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	28–13	W	U57.75
Close	NIU @ OHIO 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–24	L	U65.5
Close	NAVY @ USF 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	28–7	W	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST WWLLW	6-5	55%	2-3	5-4
WKU WLLLL	6-5	55%	3-2	3-2

Venue/role: JXST away, as favorite; WKU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST UUOOU	7-4	64%	8-3
WKU UUOUO	5-6	45%	7-4

Stayed under: it needed 40 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 46% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXST	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
WKU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JXST 3–1 WKU JXST leads · 4 games since 2023 · JXST has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 17 2023	Western Kentucky 17 @ Jacksonville State 20	WKU -7.5	JXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JXST−4.5 →−4.3▲ 0.2#84

WKU−5.2 →−6.5▼ 1.3#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

JXST

Longer bar = better

WKU

#27

Offense

◀ JXST better

#60

#79

Defense

Even

#77

+0.6 #25

Turnovers

◀ JXST better

+0.1 #64

69 plays #40

Pace

◀ JXST faster

65 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JXST has the ball

Advantage: JXST offense

	JXST off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	37.1 #14	22.6 #46	JXST
Yards / play	6.43 #26	5.79 #91	JXST
PPA / play	+0.20 #31	+0.11 #70	JXST
Success rate	45% #35	44% #101	JXST

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #73	27.7 #85	Even
Yards / play	6.00 #55	5.66 #75	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #58	+0.08 #58	Even
Success rate	44% #55	44% #99	WKU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

JXST scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	6.9 #42	12.1 #12	19.0 #19	8.1 #25	9.1 #23	17.2 #18
WKU allowed	4.1 #40	7.5 #66	11.6 #53	6.0 #79	5.0 #33	11.0 #43

WKU scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	7.9 #25	7.4 #89	15.3 #46	5.2 #87	6.9 #77	12.1 #87
JXST allowed	7.1 #110	9.5 #102	16.5 #115	4.3 #31	6.4 #61	10.6 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.