Kennesaw State @ Louisiana Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Louisiana Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Kennesaw State

2-9 · Power #133

final

Final

Louisiana Tech

4-7 · Power #112

▲ winner

Closing spread

LT -13.5

✓ LT W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

KENN 13–27 LT

✓ LT (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -11.5

CloseLT -13.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLT -11.5

2 → LT

CloseLT -13.5

2 pts toward Louisiana Tech

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LT -11.5 · closed LT -13.5 · moved 2 toward LTmodel LT -15

model LT -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 46% (81 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (109 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -11.5

CloseLT -13.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LT as a 13.5-point home favorite against KENN, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LT won 33–0; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 41.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.4 against an average line of 13.4; 50.4 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	30–20	L	O45.5
Very close	CONN vs MASS 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-15	27–10	W	U39.75
Very close	NAVY vs TEM 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	27–20	L	O41.5
Very close	SHSU vs NMSU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-15	31–11	W	U44.5
Close	WYO vs HAW 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	42–9	W	O45
Close	NIU vs EMU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-12	20–13	L	U43.5
Close	TEM vs MASS 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-10	28–0	W	U44
Close	BGSU vs AKR 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	20–35	L	O46
Close	WYO vs UNM 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-14	35–26	L	O41
Close	BUFF vs BGSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	44–56	L	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENN WWLWW	5-5	50%	2-2	5-5
LT LWWWW	6-4	60%	2-2	1-4

Venue/role: KENN away, as underdog; LT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENN OUOUO	4-6	40%	2-9
LT UUOUO	5-5	50%	4-7

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 57% of games with totals 37.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
LT	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENN−17.4 →−22.4▼ 5.0#132

LT−10.2 →−11.3▼ 1.1#113

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

KENN

Longer bar = better

#133

Offense

Even

#126

#104

Defense

LT better ▶

#26

−0.6 #116

Turnovers

LT better ▶

−0.3 #89

63 plays #114

Pace

LT faster ▶

70 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENN has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	KENN off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #128	22.4 #45	LT
Yards / play	4.13 #136	4.78 #18	LT
PPA / play	−0.11 #133	+0.02 #25	LT
Success rate	32% #136	37% #14	LT

When LT has the ball

Advantage: KENN defense

	LT off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #116	31.0 #107	Even
Yards / play	4.75 #129	6.04 #103	KENN
PPA / play	−0.05 #132	+0.15 #93	KENN
Success rate	36% #127	46% #112	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

KENN scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	3.8 #112	4.6 #126	8.5 #128	3.5 #123	5.5 #110	8.9 #124
LT allowed	4.9 #65	5.5 #24	10.5 #33	5.4 #61	4.8 #30	10.2 #31

LT scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	3.8 #112	7.7 #79	11.5 #101	3.9 #115	5.2 #115	9.1 #121
KENN allowed	5.7 #85	9.8 #109	15.5 #102	7.8 #115	5.7 #47	13.5 #87

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.