Minnesota @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Fri, Nov 29, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Wisconsin · Conference game

Weather at kickoff23°F14 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Minnesota

6-5 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

Wisconsin

5-6 · Power #47

final

Closing spread

MINN -1.5

✓ MINN W

Total

40.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

MINN 20–19 WIS

✓ MINN (53%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWIS -2

CloseMINN -1.5

Total44.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWIS -2

3.5 → MINN

CloseMINN -1.5

3.5 pts toward Minnesota

Total

Open44.5

▼ 4

Close40.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WIS -2 · closed MINN -1.5 · moved 3.5 toward MINNmodel WIS -0.5

model WIS -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 49% (96 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (65 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWIS -2

CloseMINN -1.5

Total44.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 1.5-point road favorite at WIS, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MINN won 24–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 40.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 2.8; 40.7 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 3 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SC @ OU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1	35–9	W	O40.5
Very close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–21	L	U45
Very close	TULN @ CIN 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1	27–24	W	O44
Very close	UK @ FLA 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	20–48	L	O42.5
Close	MD @ NEB 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-1.5	13–10	W	U42
Close	UK @ MSST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	24–3	W	U44.5
Close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-6	6–20	L	U44
Close	RUTG @ NU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	7–21	L	U45
Close	NCSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-2	26–6	W	U43
Close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN WWWLW	8-3	73%	3-1	5-1
WIS WLLWL	4-7	36%	2-4	2-5

Venue/role: MINN away, as favorite; WIS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN UOUOO	6-5	55%	6-5
WIS UUOUO	6-5	55%	5-6

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 57% of games with totals 36.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINN	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
WIS	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MINN 0–1 WIS WIS leads · 1 game since 2023 · WIS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Wisconsin 28 @ Minnesota 14	WIS -3	WIS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN−1.4 →+7.5▲ 8.9#36

WIS+5.7 →+5.5▼ 0.2#43

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

MINN

Longer bar = better

WIS

#79

Offense

Even

#85

#30

Defense

◀ MINN better

#74

+0.9 #13

Turnovers

◀ MINN better

−0.5 #110

62 plays #119

Pace

WIS faster ▶

66 plays #76

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Even matchup

	MINN off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #85	23.0 #51	WIS
Yards / play	5.28 #111	5.45 #61	WIS
PPA / play	+0.14 #66	+0.16 #97	MINN
Success rate	44% #52	43% #86	MINN

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	WIS off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #99	18.5 #16	MINN
Yards / play	5.52 #88	4.92 #23	MINN
PPA / play	+0.08 #99	+0.03 #30	MINN
Success rate	44% #55	40% #51	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	4.7 #89	9.2 #48	13.9 #73	5.0 #94	7.6 #48	12.6 #78
WIS allowed	2.5 #9	6.5 #44	8.9 #16	6.5 #92	7.5 #91	14.1 #97

WIS scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	5.9 #65	6.2 #111	12.1 #95	6.2 #65	5.7 #104	11.9 #94
MINN allowed	2.5 #10	7.0 #56	9.5 #23	3.6 #20	5.3 #39	8.9 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.