Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Fri, Nov 29, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Bowling Green · Conference game

Weather at kickoff30°F17 mphgusts 34DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami (OH)

7-4 · Power #73

▲ winner

Final

Bowling Green

7-4 · Power #75

final

Closing spread

BGSU -3

✓ M-OH W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 18–21 BGSU

✗ BGSU (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -2.5

CloseBGSU -3

Total43.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBGSU -2.5

0.5 → BGSU

CloseBGSU -3

0.5 pts toward Bowling Green

Total

Open43.5

▼ 6

Close37.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BGSU -2.5 · closed BGSU -3 · moved 0.5 toward BGSUmodel BGSU -4.5

model BGSU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (171 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -2.5

CloseBGSU -3

Total43.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as a 3-point home favorite against M-OH, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 28–12 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 40 points went over 37.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 3.7; 37.4 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT vs NCSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	28–35	L	O41
Very close	NIU vs TOL 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	6–13	L	U42.5
Close	CIN vs ISU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & spread	-5	10–30	L	U42.5
Close	LOU vs NCST 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-4	25–10	W	U43
Close	FRES vs CSU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	28–22	W	O43.5
Close	AFA vs SDSU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	14–20	L	U39
Close	MIZ vs UK 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-1	17–21	L	U40
Close	AUB vs MSST 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form	-6.5	27–13	W	P40
Close	IOWA vs PUR 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	20–14	W	U38.5
Close	NEB vs RUTG 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.25	14–7	W	U40

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH WWLLW	5-6	45%	2-3	1-3
BGSU LWLWW	5-5	50%	2-3	3-5

Venue/role: M-OH away, as underdog; BGSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH OOUUU	4-7	36%	7-4
BGSU UOUUU	3-7	30%	7-4

Went over in Q4. Of 70 earlier overs in games with totals 33.5–41.5, 37% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
BGSU	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

M-OH 1–0 BGSU M-OH leads · 1 game since 2023 · M-OH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Bowling Green 0 @ Miami (OH) 27	M-OH -11.5	M-OH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−4.7 →−2.5▲ 2.2#74

BGSU−5.6 →−0.7▲ 4.9#70

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

M-OH

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#80

Offense

BGSU better ▶

#58

#36

Defense

Even

#31

+0.5 #37

Turnovers

◀ M-OH better

+0.2 #54

59 plays #132

Pace

BGSU faster ▶

64 plays #100

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: BGSU defense

	M-OH off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #100	19.5 #21	BGSU
Yards / play	6.12 #45	5.19 #43	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #79	+0.05 #42	BGSU
Success rate	41% #94	37% #18	BGSU

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	BGSU off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	28.1 #66	17.8 #13	M-OH
Yards / play	5.92 #59	4.66 #9	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.17 #50	+0.05 #45	Even
Success rate	44% #57	42% #77	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	4.5 #95	7.5 #82	12.1 #95	5.4 #81	6.2 #94	11.5 #99
BGSU allowed	4.6 #53	5.9 #29	10.5 #34	3.0 #7	6.0 #56	9.0 #20

BGSU scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	8.0 #25	8.0 #74	16.0 #43	6.4 #57	5.7 #104	12.1 #85
M-OH allowed	5.0 #64	3.5 #6	8.5 #13	4.1 #30	5.2 #36	9.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.