Arkansas State vs Bowling Green: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (68 Ventures Bowl, 2024)

Thu, Dec 26, 2024, 9:10 PM EST68 Ventures Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff61°F11 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas State

7-5 · Power #113

▲ winner

Final

Bowling Green

7-5 · Power #75

final

Closing spread

BGSU -10.5

✓ ARST W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 21–31 BGSU

✗ BGSU (77%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -7.5

CloseBGSU -10.5

Total49.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBGSU -7.5

3 → BGSU

CloseBGSU -10.5

3 pts toward Bowling Green

Total

Open49.5

▲ 5

Close54.5

Up 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BGSU -7.5 · closed BGSU -10.5 · moved 3 toward BGSUmodel BGSU -11

model BGSU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (118 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -7.5

CloseBGSU -10.5

Total49.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as a 10.5-point neutral-site favorite against ARST, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 38–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 54.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.6 against an average line of 9.7; 62 points a game (usually 54.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LIB vs EMU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	56–20	W	O58.5
Close	BOIS vs UNT 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-11.75	35–32	L	O63
Close	GAST vs BALL 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-6	51–20	W	O53
Close	TLSA vs ODU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	30–17	W	U55
Close	FRES vs UTEP 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-13	31–24	L	O54.5
Loose	UAB vs M-OH 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-10.75	24–20	L	U45.75
Loose	SDSU vs MTSU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	23–25	L	O47
Loose	CCU vs NIU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-12	47–41	L	O63.5
Loose	ECU vs CCU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & situation	-7	53–29	W	O67
Loose	MRSH vs CONN 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & spread	-12.25	28–14	W	P42

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ARST LLWWL	4-6	40%	—	2-4
BGSU WLWWL	5-6	45%	—	3-6

Venue/role: ARST neutral, as underdog; BGSU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST OOUUO	5-5	50%	7-5
BGSU OUUUO	4-7	36%	7-5

Went over in Q3. Of 366 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%
BGSU	6-4 60%	3-6 33%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−7.6 →−11.9▼ 4.3#116

BGSU−5.6 →−2.0▲ 3.6#73

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

ARST

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#93

Offense

BGSU better ▶

#73

#126

Defense

BGSU better ▶

#29

+0.2 #55

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #50

72 plays #11

Pace

◀ ARST faster

64 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: BGSU defense

	ARST off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #96	20.3 #20	BGSU
Yards / play	5.35 #99	5.30 #49	BGSU
PPA / play	+0.12 #75	+0.05 #36	BGSU
Success rate	41% #101	37% #12	BGSU

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: BGSU offense

	BGSU off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #77	32.3 #113	BGSU
Yards / play	5.75 #76	6.93 #133	BGSU
PPA / play	+0.13 #72	+0.26 #127	BGSU
Success rate	43% #65	49% #130	BGSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	6.2 #58	4.7 #125	10.8 #109	7.1 #46	6.9 #75	14.0 #62
BGSU allowed	4.8 #60	6.0 #26	10.8 #39	2.8 #8	6.7 #66	9.4 #21

BGSU scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	7.3 #29	7.8 #78	15.1 #48	5.8 #69	5.8 #102	11.7 #96
ARST allowed	6.9 #105	8.0 #76	14.9 #94	9.7 #130	7.7 #91	17.3 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.