Oklahoma vs Navy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, 2024)

Fri, Dec 27, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTLockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff60°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma

6-6 · Power #28

final

Final

Navy

9-3 · Power #61

▲ winner

Closing spread

OU -2.5

✓ NAVY W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

OU 25–21 NAVY

✗ OU (61%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOU -9

CloseOU -2.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOU -9

6.5 → NAVY

CloseOU -2.5

6.5 pts toward Navy

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OU -9 · closed OU -2.5 · moved 6.5 toward NAVYmodel OU -10

model OU -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 61% (33 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOU -9

CloseOU -2.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like OU as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against NAVY, the favorite won 1, covered 0, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 21–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 3 similar games. 41 points stayed under 44.5, as in 0 of 3.

Favorite won

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

0 of 30%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 5 against an average line of 4.3; 59 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BAY vs AFA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	15–30	L	O42.25
Close	CLEM vs UK 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	38–35	L	O44.5
Loose	BYU vs UAB 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	28–31	L	O54.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
OU WWLWL	6-6	50%	0-1	3-2
NAVY LWL–W	7-4	64%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: OU neutral, as favorite; NAVY neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU UOOUO	6-6	50%	6-6
NAVY UUUOO	9-3	75%	9-3

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
NAVY	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OU+17.8 →+10.2▼ 7.6#23

NAVY−17.5 →+1.2▲ 18.7#63

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

NAVY

#117

Offense

NAVY better ▶

#28

#18

Defense

◀ OU better

#44

+0.1 #59

Turnovers

NAVY better ▶

+0.8 #19

68 plays #65

Pace

◀ OU faster

60 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OU has the ball

Advantage: NAVY defense

	OU off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #98	22.3 #41	NAVY
Yards / play	4.78 #129	5.41 #55	NAVY
PPA / play	−0.02 #126	+0.01 #17	NAVY
Success rate	39% #116	41% #64	NAVY

When NAVY has the ball

Even matchup

	NAVY off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	32.2 #39	21.6 #33	Even
Yards / play	6.31 #29	4.87 #17	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #10	−0.01 #12	Even
Success rate	46% #34	36% #9	OU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OU scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	5.4 #74	8.8 #61	14.2 #69	3.6 #121	6.6 #81	10.2 #112
NAVY allowed	4.7 #53	5.3 #16	9.9 #24	5.3 #65	7.1 #77	12.4 #66

NAVY scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	7.3 #29	10.0 #35	17.3 #30	7.2 #43	7.7 #52	14.8 #48
OU allowed	4.8 #60	7.3 #60	12.1 #55	4.1 #21	5.4 #37	9.5 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.