East Carolina vs NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Go Bowling Military Bowl, 2024)

Sat, Dec 28, 2024, 5:45 PM ESTGo Bowling Military Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff51°F9 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

East Carolina

7-5 · Power #92

▲ winner

Final

NC State

6-6 · Power #67

final

Closing spread

NCSU -7.5

✓ ECU W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

ECU 23–31 NCSU

✗ NCSU (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -5

CloseNCSU -7.5

Total59.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNCSU -5

2.5 → NCSU

CloseNCSU -7.5

2.5 pts toward NC State

Total

Open59.5

▲ 1

Close60.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NCSU -5 · closed NCSU -7.5 · moved 2.5 toward NCSUmodel NCSU -7.5 matches the line

model NCSU -7.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 60% (35 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -5

CloseNCSU -7.5

Total59.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NCSU as a 7.5-point neutral-site favorite against ECU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ECU won 26–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 60.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 5.9; 57.7 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB vs EMU 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	56–20	W	O58.5
Close	UCF vs GT 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-6.25	17–30	L	U66
Close	TLSA vs ODU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	30–17	W	U55
Close	GAST vs BALL 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-6	51–20	W	O53
Close	JXST vs UL 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	34–31	L	O58
Close	FLA vs UCF 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-7	17–29	L	U56
Close	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3	12–18	L	U56.5
Close	ECU vs CCU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings & situation	-7	53–29	W	O67
Close	SJSU vs EMU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	27–41	L	O54
Close	WSU vs CMU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings & situation	-5.5	21–24	L	U56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ECU WWLW–	7-4	64%	—	3-1
NCSU WWLWW	4-8	33%	0-1	1-5

Venue/role: ECU neutral, as underdog; NCSU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ECU OOOUO	7-5	58%	7-5
NCSU OOUOO	8-4	67%	6-6

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 45% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ECU	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	7-3 70%
NCSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ECU−7.2 →−6.2▲ 1.0#95

NCSU+5.5 →+0.6▼ 4.9#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

ECU

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#48

Offense

Even

#50

#54

Defense

◀ ECU better

#85

−0.6 #110

Turnovers

NCSU better ▶

−0.3 #93

69 plays #40

Pace

◀ ECU faster

63 plays #112

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: ECU offense

	ECU off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #36	30.5 #105	ECU
Yards / play	6.26 #34	5.93 #92	ECU
PPA / play	+0.14 #59	+0.13 #83	ECU
Success rate	43% #63	41% #59	Even

When NCSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NCSU off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #58	27.8 #84	NCSU
Yards / play	5.97 #52	5.34 #49	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #43	+0.07 #49	Even
Success rate	45% #45	39% #34	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ECU scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	8.1 #20	6.6 #100	14.7 #57	10.0 #5	7.8 #49	17.8 #7
NCSU allowed	8.5 #124	7.8 #75	16.3 #111	7.7 #112	6.6 #62	14.3 #101

NCSU scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	4.3 #101	6.9 #95	11.2 #106	6.3 #59	11.8 #3	18.0 #6
ECU allowed	5.4 #78	8.3 #84	13.8 #80	6.7 #98	7.4 #86	14.1 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.