NC State @ North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at North Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff42°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

NC State

5-6 · Power #67

▲ winner

Final

North Carolina

6-5 · Power #64

final

Closing spread

UNC -2.5

✓ NCSU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

NCSU 26–30 UNC

✗ UNC (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNC -3.5

CloseUNC -2.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNC -3.5

1 → NCSU

CloseUNC -2.5

1 pt toward NC State

Total

Open56.5

▼ 2

Close54.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNC -3.5 · closed UNC -2.5 · moved 1 toward NCSUmodel UNC -6

model UNC -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (207 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 47% (49 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNC -3.5

CloseUNC -2.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNC as a 2.5-point home favorite against NCSU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 35–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 54.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 3.5; 57.4 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WVU vs CIN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-5	42–21	W	O52.5
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	GT vs SYR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-6	31–22	W	O51.5
Very close	MEM vs ECU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-4	29–30	L	O58.75
Very close	MEM vs HOU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	32–33	L	O57.5
Very close	MINN vs MD 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-4	34–16	W	U53
Very close	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Very close	LIB vs ARMY 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	16–31	L	U51.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCSU LWWLW	3-8	27%	2-1	2-3
UNC LWWLL	3-8	27%	0-6	2-6

Venue/role: NCSU away, as underdog; UNC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU UOOUO	7-4	64%	5-6
UNC OUUUO	4-7	36%	6-5

Went over in Q4. Of 350 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
UNC	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NCSU 1–0 UNC NCSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NCSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	North Carolina 20 @ NC State 39	UNC -2.5	NCSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NCSU+5.5 →−0.2▼ 5.7#67

UNC+7.2 →+3.0▼ 4.2#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

NCSU

Longer bar = better

UNC

#58

Offense

Even

#55

#87

Defense

UNC better ▶

#65

−0.5 #101

Turnovers

UNC better ▶

0.0 #73

62 plays #118

Pace

UNC faster ▶

71 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NCSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NCSU off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #62	27.5 #82	Even
Yards / play	5.87 #63	5.56 #67	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #51	+0.11 #73	NCSU
Success rate	44% #57	39% #38	Even

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: UNC offense

	UNC off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #35	30.5 #105	UNC
Yards / play	5.88 #59	5.79 #90	UNC
PPA / play	+0.14 #62	+0.11 #77	Even
Success rate	43% #62	42% #74	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NCSU scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	4.0 #106	7.5 #82	11.5 #101	6.3 #61	10.8 #4	17.1 #18
UNC allowed	5.2 #72	9.0 #98	14.2 #88	5.5 #65	7.9 #97	13.4 #82

UNC scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	5.4 #78	10.0 #36	15.4 #47	8.6 #19	8.5 #35	17.2 #16
NCSU allowed	9.3 #130	7.9 #74	17.2 #118	7.1 #103	6.3 #60	13.4 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.