Florida @ Florida State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Florida State

Weather at kickoff46°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Florida

6-5 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

Florida State

2-9 · Power #85

final

Closing spread

FLA -17.5

✓ FLA W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

FLA 31–15 FSU

✓ FLA (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFLA -14

CloseFLA -17.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFLA -14

3.5 → FLA

CloseFLA -17.5

3.5 pts toward Florida

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FLA -14 · closed FLA -17.5 · moved 3.5 toward FLAmodel FLA -11.5

model FLA -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (67 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFLA -14

CloseFLA -17.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FLA as a 17.5-point road favorite at FSU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: FLA won 31–11; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 45.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.4 against an average line of 16.2; 42 points a game (usually 54.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WASH @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-17.25	21–16	L	U45.5
Close	STAN @ VAN 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-13	41–23	W	O49
Close	ND @ STAN 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-20.75	45–14	W	O53
Close	TULN @ ECU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-17	13–10	L	U44.5
Close	CSU @ UNM 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-13	36–7	W	U44.75
Close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Close	BGSU @ CMU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-15.5	23–13	L	U48.5
Close	UAB @ USM 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-17	34–0	W	U43.25
Close	USU @ UNM 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-17	35–10	W	U48
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	29–13	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA WWLWW	6-4	60%	1-1	0-1
FSU LLLLW	3-8	27%	3-3	1-5

Venue/role: FLA away, as favorite; FSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA OOOUU	5-5	50%	6-5
FSU UUUOO	3-8	27%	2-9

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	6-4 60%	6-3 67%	4-5 44%
FSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FLA 39–29 FSU (2 tied) FLA leads · 70 games since 1904 · FLA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Florida State 24 @ Florida 15	FSU -6.5	FSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA+8.5 →+9.3▲ 0.8#26

FSU+14.6 →−3.5▼ 18.1#81

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

FLA

Longer bar = better

FSU

#67

Offense

◀ FLA better

#132

#81

Defense

Even

#87

+0.1 #59

Turnovers

◀ FLA better

−1.1 #135

60 plays #127

Pace

Even

60 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Even matchup

	FLA off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #71	27.7 #85	Even
Yards / play	6.22 #39	5.74 #83	FLA
PPA / play	+0.09 #89	+0.24 #124	FLA
Success rate	43% #70	41% #57	Even

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: FLA defense

	FSU off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	15.8 #134	25.5 #73	FLA
Yards / play	4.54 #134	5.56 #67	FLA
PPA / play	−0.03 #129	+0.11 #80	FLA
Success rate	34% #132	45% #104	FLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	3.4 #121	9.6 #44	13.0 #87	5.9 #69	8.7 #29	14.6 #55
FSU allowed	5.0 #66	8.9 #97	13.9 #85	6.5 #92	7.4 #83	13.8 #92

FSU scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	2.8 #128	4.6 #126	7.5 #132	4.5 #105	3.9 #132	8.4 #127
FLA allowed	4.0 #35	8.6 #91	12.6 #71	8.0 #118	4.4 #14	12.4 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.