Stanford @ San José State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Fri, Nov 29, 2024, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at San José State

Weather at kickoff55°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Stanford

3-8 · Power #96

final

Final

San José State

6-5 · Power #86

▲ winner

Closing spread

SJSU -2.5

✓ SJSU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

STAN 25–28 SJSU

✓ SJSU (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -2

CloseSJSU -2.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSJSU -2

0.5 → SJSU

CloseSJSU -2.5

0.5 pts toward San José State

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SJSU -2 · closed SJSU -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward SJSUmodel SJSU -4

model SJSU -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 48% (202 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -2

CloseSJSU -2.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SJSU as a 2.5-point home favorite against STAN, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SJSU won 34–31; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.4 against an average line of 3.3; 54.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MRSH vs APP 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	52–37	W	O56.5
Very close	BC vs UVA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	27–24	L	U52.5
Very close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	24–0	W	U55.5
Very close	USA vs GASO 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	41–14	W	O49.5
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	MEM vs TULN 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	33–28	L	O58
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Very close	CLT vs MTSU 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	42–39	W	O55.5
Very close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-1	38–19	W	O53.5
Close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN LLLWW	5-6	45%	2-3	4-6
SJSU LLWLL	4-6	40%	2-4	2-2

Venue/role: STAN away, as underdog; SJSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN UUOOU	4-7	36%	3-8
SJSU UUUOU	4-6	40%	6-5

Went over in Q4. Of 343 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
SJSU	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

STAN−5.0 →−6.2▼ 1.2#95

SJSU−2.2 →−4.8▼ 2.6#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

STAN

Longer bar = better

SJSU

#118

Offense

SJSU better ▶

#64

#119

Defense

SJSU better ▶

#50

−0.4 #95

Turnovers

SJSU better ▶

−0.1 #77

67 plays #72

Pace

◀ STAN faster

65 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: SJSU defense

	STAN off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #114	26.0 #77	SJSU
Yards / play	4.77 #127	5.11 #37	SJSU
PPA / play	−0.03 #128	+0.02 #25	SJSU
Success rate	40% #104	41% #61	SJSU

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: SJSU offense

	SJSU off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #79	33.6 #118	SJSU
Yards / play	6.25 #37	6.42 #119	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.13 #74	+0.23 #120	SJSU
Success rate	43% #67	46% #118	SJSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

STAN scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	5.4 #76	5.8 #118	11.2 #104	5.1 #88	5.8 #104	10.9 #106
SJSU allowed	4.6 #56	8.1 #79	12.7 #71	6.3 #84	6.3 #61	12.5 #73

SJSU scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	6.0 #60	8.4 #64	14.4 #63	4.7 #98	7.3 #61	12.0 #89
STAN allowed	7.9 #120	9.6 #105	17.5 #119	7.8 #114	8.3 #105	16.1 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.