Texas State @ South Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Fri, Nov 29, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at South Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F13 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Texas State

6-5 · Power #54

▲ winner

Final

South Alabama

6-5 · Power #66

final

Closing spread

TXST -2.5

✓ TXST W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 83 pts

Model before kickoff

TXST 30–28 USA

✓ TXST (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -0.5

CloseTXST -2.5

Total62.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSA -0.5

3 → TXST

CloseTXST -2.5

3 pts toward Texas State

Total

Open62.5

▼ 2

Close60.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USA -0.5 · closed TXST -2.5 · moved 3 toward TXSTmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 44% (146 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (106 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -0.5

CloseTXST -2.5

Total62.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 2.5-point road favorite at USA, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TXST won 45–38; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 83 points went over 60.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.3 against an average line of 2.5; 55.7 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SMU @ HOU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-1	37–44	L	O61.5
Very close	TCU @ TTU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	52–31	W	O60.5
Very close	UNC @ DUKE 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	20–21	L	U55.5
Close	KSU @ TTU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-1	25–24	P	U60.5
Close	ASU @ ORST 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-3	10–24	L	U59
Close	TXST @ CCU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.75	23–31	L	U55.5
Close	MRSH @ FAU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	28–13	W	U57.75
Close	BOIS @ USU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-5	45–10	W	U63.5
Close	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Close	OKST @ UCF 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	3–45	L	U64

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST LLWWL	5-5	50%	2-1	5-5
USA WWLWL	4-6	40%	3-2	1-1

Venue/role: TXST away, as favorite; USA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST UUOOO	6-4	60%	6-5
USA UOOUU	4-6	40%	6-5

Went over in Q3. Of 176 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXST	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
USA	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TXST 7–4 USA TXST leads · 11 games since 2013 · TXST has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	South Alabama 44 @ Texas State 52	USA -6	TXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST−3.2 →+2.9▲ 6.1#58

USA+0.8 →+0.6▼ 0.2#66

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

TXST

Longer bar = better

USA

#19

Offense

Even

#13

#44

Defense

◀ TXST better

#60

−0.6 #115

Turnovers

USA better ▶

+0.8 #18

72 plays #14

Pace

◀ TXST faster

66 plays #82

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #16	23.5 #58	TXST
Yards / play	6.51 #21	5.73 #82	TXST
PPA / play	+0.22 #25	+0.06 #51	TXST
Success rate	48% #12	40% #48	TXST

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #23	23.0 #52	USA
Yards / play	6.71 #13	5.06 #35	USA
PPA / play	+0.32 #8	+0.08 #59	USA
Success rate	50% #7	38% #30	USA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TXST scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	12.8 #1	9.0 #49	21.8 #6	7.3 #41	7.3 #60	14.5 #55
USA allowed	6.0 #91	6.5 #45	12.5 #66	3.7 #21	7.4 #85	11.1 #49

USA scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	5.5 #73	12.4 #9	17.9 #28	11.5 #2	5.1 #119	16.5 #25
TXST allowed	3.7 #30	8.4 #84	12.1 #63	6.2 #82	4.7 #23	10.9 #44

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.