Georgia State @ Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Texas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F4 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Georgia State

2-8 · Power #110

▲ winner

Final

Texas State

6-4 · Power #54

final

Closing spread

TXST -22.5

✓ GAST W

Total

59.5

▲ Over · 96 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 17–40 TXST

✗ TXST (94%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -21

CloseTXST -22.5

Total58.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -21

1.5 → TXST

CloseTXST -22.5

1.5 pts toward Texas State

Total

Open58.5

▲ 1

Close59.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -21 · closed TXST -22.5 · moved 1.5 toward TXSTmodel TXST -21.5

model TXST -21.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 21.5–23.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 40% (47 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (108 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -21

CloseTXST -22.5

Total58.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 22.5-point home favorite against GAST, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: GAST won 52–44 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 96 points went over 59.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

1 of 911%

Below normal · usually 48%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 18.1 against an average line of 22; 46.3 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNLV vs SDSU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21.5	41–20	L	O55
Very close	UL vs TXST 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-21	45–0	W	U58
Very close	LIB vs MTSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-20	41–13	W	U58.75
Very close	MRSH vs ODU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21	20–13	L	U62.5
Very close	SMU vs USF 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21.25	41–17	W	U68.5
Very close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-24.5	27–3	L	U55
Very close	UNC vs UVA 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-24	27–31	L	P58
Very close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-24	42–7	W	U54
Very close	UNC vs GT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-21.25	17–21	L	U63
Very close	UL vs ULM 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-21.5	21–16	L	U55.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST LWWLL	3-6	33%	2-2	3-2
TXST WLLWW	5-4	56%	3-2	5-4

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; TXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST OUOUU	4-5	44%	2-8
TXST UUUOO	5-4	56%	6-4

Went over in Q3. Of 219 earlier overs in games with totals 55.5–63.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	2-8 20%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%
TXST	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−5.1 →−11.7▼ 6.6#113

TXST−3.2 →+4.8▲ 8.0#47

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

GAST

Longer bar = better

TXST

#103

Offense

TXST better ▶

#17

#118

Defense

TXST better ▶

#29

−0.2 #85

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #94

68 plays #56

Pace

TXST faster ▶

71 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: TXST defense

	GAST off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #121	20.1 #25	TXST
Yards / play	5.49 #89	4.81 #20	TXST
PPA / play	+0.06 #105	+0.05 #45	TXST
Success rate	41% #95	38% #27	TXST

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	35.6 #18	31.4 #109	TXST
Yards / play	6.61 #16	6.27 #114	TXST
PPA / play	+0.24 #23	+0.24 #126	TXST
Success rate	49% #10	46% #121	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	2.0 #133	6.9 #101	8.9 #124	6.4 #58	5.4 #112	11.8 #95
TXST allowed	2.7 #14	6.8 #52	9.5 #24	6.1 #81	4.5 #21	10.6 #37

TXST scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	12.7 #1	9.2 #48	21.9 #6	8.0 #27	5.7 #106	13.7 #61
GAST allowed	7.9 #119	7.4 #66	15.3 #102	6.9 #103	9.2 #116	16.1 #116

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.