UL Monroe @ Arkansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Arkansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

UL Monroe

5-5 · Power #115

final

Final

Arkansas State

6-4 · Power #113

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARST -2.5

✓ ARST W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

ULM 25–28 ARST

✓ ARST (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARST -3.5

CloseARST -2.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARST -3.5

1 → ULM

CloseARST -2.5

1 pt toward UL Monroe

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARST -3.5 · closed ARST -2.5 · moved 1 toward ULMmodel ARST -2.5 matches the line

model ARST -2.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (193 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 47% (43 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARST -3.5

CloseARST -2.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARST as a 2.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 28–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.5 against an average line of 2.9; 56.5 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TXST vs GASO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	30–38	L	O52
Very close	MRSH vs ARST 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	35–21	W	O52.5
Very close	MTSU vs LT 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	31–23	W	P54
Very close	TLSA vs CLT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	26–33	L	O47.5
Very close	USM vs ODU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	13–17	L	U56.5
Very close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Very close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	37–30	W	O47
Very close	TLSA vs TEM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	48–26	W	O55
Very close	LT vs UTEP 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-1.75	41–31	W	O52.25
Very close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM WLWLL	6-4	60%	2-3	4-4
ARST LWLLW	3-5	38%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; ARST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM OOOOO	6-4	60%	5-5
ARST UOOOU	4-4	50%	6-4

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
ARST	6-4 60%	3-5 38%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ULM 9–26 ARST ARST leads · 35 games since 1974 · ULM has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Arkansas State 34 @ UL Monroe 24	ULM -1	ARST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM−17.3 →−11.2▲ 6.1#112

ARST−7.6 →−11.1▼ 3.5#111

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ULM

Longer bar = better

ARST

#115

Offense

ARST better ▶

#97

#91

Defense

◀ ULM better

#125

+0.1 #60

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #55

57 plays #134

Pace

ARST faster ▶

73 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Even matchup

	ULM off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #118	32.6 #116	Even
Yards / play	5.10 #118	6.80 #132	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #95	+0.25 #124	ULM
Success rate	36% #129	49% #129	Even

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #101	28.0 #88	Even
Yards / play	5.32 #105	5.60 #69	ULM
PPA / play	+0.11 #82	+0.13 #83	Even
Success rate	40% #101	47% #123	ARST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ULM scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	3.4 #119	5.8 #121	9.2 #121	4.3 #107	7.3 #58	11.6 #95
ARST allowed	6.2 #96	8.9 #92	15.1 #99	9.0 #125	8.5 #109	17.5 #128

ARST scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	6.0 #61	4.2 #127	10.2 #116	6.3 #60	7.3 #58	13.6 #63
ULM allowed	7.8 #116	6.6 #48	14.4 #89	5.8 #73	7.8 #97	13.6 #92

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.