South Alabama @ Southern Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Southern Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

South Alabama

5-5 · Power #66

▲ winner

Final

Southern Miss

1-9 · Power #132

final

Closing spread

USA -24.5

✓ USM W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 39–15 USM

✓ USA (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -23.5

CloseUSA -24.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSA -23.5

1 → USA

CloseUSA -24.5

1 pt toward South Alabama

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USA -23.5 · closed USA -24.5 · moved 1 toward USAmodel USA -22

model USA -22

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (101 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -23.5

CloseUSA -24.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as a 24.5-point road favorite at USM, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: USA won 35–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.3 against an average line of 23.2; 51.7 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU @ KU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-24	35–10	W	U55.75
Very close	HOU @ TEM 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-25.5	37–8	W	U52.5
Very close	TROY @ ULM 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-23.5	16–29	L	U49.5
Very close	TOL @ MASS 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-27	45–7	W	U56.5
Close	MTSU @ FIU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-19.5	33–28	L	O54.5
Close	FRES @ NEV 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-22.5	41–14	W	O54
Close	UK @ VAN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-21.5	34–17	L	U52.5
Close	UTAH @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-24	38–29	L	O54.5
Close	OHIO @ KENT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-20.5	41–0	W	U53
Close	SMU @ TEM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-24	55–0	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA LWWLW	4-5	44%	1-3	3-4
USM LLWLL	3-6	33%	2-2	2-6

Venue/role: USA away, as favorite; USM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA UUOOU	4-5	44%	5-5
USM OOUUO	3-6	33%	1-9

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%
USM	1-9 10%	3-6 33%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USA 1–0 USM USA leads · 1 game since 2023 · USA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 17 2023	Southern Miss 3 @ South Alabama 55	USA -18.5	USA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA+0.8 →+0.3▼ 0.5#66

USM−10.1 →−22.2▼ 12.1#132

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

USA

Longer bar = better

USM

#14

Offense

◀ USA better

#132

#75

Defense

◀ USA better

#123

+0.8 #22

Turnovers

◀ USA better

−1.7 #137

67 plays #67

Pace

◀ USA faster

59 plays #133

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	34.4 #25	36.6 #126	USA
Yards / play	6.65 #16	6.77 #130	USA
PPA / play	+0.31 #9	+0.26 #127	USA
Success rate	50% #6	45% #107	USA

When USM has the ball

Advantage: USA defense

	USM off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	14.9 #134	24.5 #66	USA
Yards / play	4.77 #129	5.95 #99	USA
PPA / play	−0.10 #134	+0.10 #69	USA
Success rate	36% #130	41% #66	USA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USA scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	6.1 #59	12.2 #11	18.3 #25	11.2 #3	4.9 #121	16.1 #30
USM allowed	9.6 #130	11.1 #123	20.7 #128	10.9 #133	5.7 #47	16.6 #121

USM scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	3.8 #113	7.0 #96	10.8 #112	2.3 #129	3.4 #134	5.8 #133
USA allowed	5.8 #86	6.8 #52	12.6 #69	4.1 #31	7.8 #97	11.9 #61

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.