Southern Miss @ Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Texas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Southern Miss

1-8 · Power #132

final

Final

Texas State

5-4 · Power #54

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -27.5

✓ TXST W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 14–42 TXST

✓ TXST (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -27.5

CloseTXST -27.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -27.5

no move

CloseTXST -27.5

No change since the open

Total

Open55.5

no move

Close55.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -27.5 · unchangedmodel TXST -28.5

model TXST -28.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 25.5–29.5 since 2023: won 97%, covered 52% (67 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -27.5

CloseTXST -27.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 27.5-point home favorite against USM, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: TXST won 58–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 55.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 57%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 23 against an average line of 26.7; 43 points a game (usually 55.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs AKR 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-28.5	49–14	W	O57.5
Very close	JMU vs USM 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-24	32–15	L	U54
Very close	BSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-27.5	37–0	W	U48
Very close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-24.5	27–3	L	U55
Very close	UCF vs CONN 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-30	49–17	W	O55.75
Very close	FRES vs UNM 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-24	34–7	W	U51
Very close	FRES vs NEV 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-24.5	27–9	L	U51.5
Very close	MEM vs MTSU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-27	24–7	L	U61.5
Very close	LSU vs ULM 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-29	27–14	L	U57.5
Very close	VAN vs BALL 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-27.5	24–14	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM WLLWL	3-5	38%	1-3	2-5
TXST WWLLW	4-4	50%	2-2	4-4

Venue/role: USM away, as underdog; TXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM UOOUU	2-6	25%	1-8
TXST UUUUO	4-4	50%	5-4

Went over in Q4. Of 316 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	1-9 10%	3-6 33%	3-6 33%
TXST	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USM 0–1 TXST TXST leads · 1 game since 2023 · TXST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Texas State 50 @ Southern Miss 36	TXST -6.5	TXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−10.1 →−20.6▼ 10.5#131

TXST−3.2 →+2.7▲ 5.9#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

USM

Longer bar = better

TXST

#129

Offense

TXST better ▶

#31

#112

Defense

TXST better ▶

#41

−1.9 #137

Turnovers

TXST better ▶

−0.3 #95

58 plays #134

Pace

TXST faster ▶

72 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Advantage: TXST defense

	USM off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	16.2 #134	22.0 #43	TXST
Yards / play	5.03 #119	5.03 #34	TXST
PPA / play	−0.09 #133	+0.07 #49	TXST
Success rate	37% #128	39% #36	TXST

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	33.1 #33	34.2 #118	TXST
Yards / play	6.19 #43	6.35 #117	TXST
PPA / play	+0.21 #33	+0.23 #116	TXST
Success rate	48% #16	44% #96	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USM scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	4.3 #103	7.5 #83	11.8 #102	2.6 #128	3.9 #132	6.5 #133
TXST allowed	3.0 #19	7.2 #62	10.2 #33	6.8 #93	5.0 #33	11.8 #60

TXST scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	11.8 #2	8.8 #56	20.6 #13	7.0 #46	5.6 #108	12.6 #81
USM allowed	8.1 #120	10.9 #119	19.0 #124	10.1 #133	5.5 #45	15.6 #115

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.