Marshall @ Southern Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Southern Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff86°F11 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Marshall

5-3 · Power #69

▲ winner

Final

Southern Miss

1-7 · Power #132

final

Closing spread

MRSH -13.5

✓ MRSH W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

MRSH 32–19 USM

✓ MRSH (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -14

CloseMRSH -13.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMRSH -14

0.5 → USM

CloseMRSH -13.5

0.5 pts toward Southern Miss

Total

Open54.5

▼ 2

Close52.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MRSH -14 · closed MRSH -13.5 · moved 0.5 toward USMmodel MRSH -12.5

model MRSH -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 82%, covered 50% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -14

CloseMRSH -13.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MRSH as a 13.5-point road favorite at USM, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MRSH won 37–3; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.3 against an average line of 12; 57.9 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 5 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP @ ULM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	41–40	L	O51
Very close	M-OH @ KENT 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-14.5	23–3	W	U49.5
Very close	UNLV @ HAW 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-11	25–31	L	U56.5
Very close	WKU @ FIU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-11.5	41–28	W	O54.25
Close	SHSU @ UTEP 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-10	41–21	W	O49.5
Close	WYO @ HAW 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-11.5	27–20	L	U50.75
Close	USA @ ULM 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	31–41	L	O51
Close	NIU @ BALL 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-13.5	23–25	L	O47.5
Close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-11	55–7	W	O51
Close	UNT @ FIU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-10	49–7	W	U57.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRSH WWWWL	7-1	88%	3-0	4-1
USM LWLLW	3-4	43%	2-1	2-4

Venue/role: MRSH away, as favorite; USM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRSH UOUOO	4-4	50%	5-3
USM UUOOU	2-5	29%	1-7

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 53% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRSH	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
USM	1-9 10%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MRSH−5.5 →−4.5▲ 1.0#86

USM−10.1 →−18.6▼ 8.5#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MRSH

Longer bar = better

USM

#55

Offense

◀ MRSH better

#120

#79

Defense

◀ MRSH better

#113

+0.3 #53

Turnovers

◀ MRSH better

−1.9 #137

64 plays #102

Pace

◀ MRSH faster

58 plays #133

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: MRSH offense

	MRSH off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #56	33.9 #118	MRSH
Yards / play	6.02 #54	6.22 #115	MRSH
PPA / play	+0.16 #58	+0.23 #118	MRSH
Success rate	45% #52	44% #99	MRSH

When USM has the ball

Advantage: MRSH defense

	USM off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	17.9 #130	25.9 #79	MRSH
Yards / play	5.27 #109	5.63 #74	MRSH
PPA / play	−0.06 #130	+0.13 #84	MRSH
Success rate	38% #112	42% #79	MRSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MRSH scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	6.5 #56	10.8 #25	17.3 #38	4.3 #106	8.3 #36	12.5 #83
USM allowed	8.9 #127	10.4 #119	19.3 #125	9.1 #128	5.9 #57	15.0 #110

USM scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	4.9 #95	8.1 #72	13.0 #87	3.0 #124	4.4 #127	7.4 #131
MRSH allowed	3.8 #32	6.9 #51	10.6 #42	7.4 #108	7.9 #99	15.3 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.