Georgia State @ James Madison: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at James Madison · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Georgia State

2-6 · Power #110

final

Final

James Madison

6-2 · Power #59

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -15.5

✓ JMU W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 17–34 JMU

✓ JMU (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -17

CloseJMU -15.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -17

1.5 → GAST

CloseJMU -15.5

1.5 pts toward Georgia State

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -17 · closed JMU -15.5 · moved 1.5 toward GASTmodel JMU -19.5

model JMU -19.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 90%, covered 47% (60 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (92 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -17

CloseJMU -15.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 15.5-point home favorite against GAST, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: JMU won 38–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.3 against an average line of 16.7; 54.7 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Very close	LIB vs LT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	56–30	W	O59
Very close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Very close	MEM vs CLT 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-17	33–28	L	O56
Close	OHIO vs WMU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-16.5	20–17	L	U52
Close	LIB vs FIU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-15.5	31–24	L	U55.5
Close	TROY vs ARST 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-15.5	37–3	W	U52
Close	NCST vs LT 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-17.75	34–27	L	O56
Close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Close	ASU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-20	38–15	W	P53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST LLLWW	3-4	43%	2-1	3-1
JMU WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	2-4

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; JMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST OUOUO	4-3	57%	2-6
JMU OUUUU	2-5	29%	6-2

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	3-7 30%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%
JMU	7-3 70%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GAST 0–6 JMU JMU leads · 6 games since 2012 · JMU has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	James Madison 42 @ Georgia State 14	JMU -6	JMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−5.1 →−10.6▼ 5.5#111

JMU+2.2 →+4.6▲ 2.4#47

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

GAST

Longer bar = better

JMU

#96

Offense

JMU better ▶

#59

#118

Defense

JMU better ▶

+0.1 #63

Turnovers

JMU better ▶

+2.1 #1

68 plays #53

Pace

Even

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	GAST off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #110	17.6 #15	JMU
Yards / play	5.64 #79	4.73 #14	JMU
PPA / play	+0.08 #100	−0.15 #3	JMU
Success rate	42% #95	33% #1	JMU

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #25	31.1 #107	JMU
Yards / play	5.97 #64	6.33 #118	JMU
PPA / play	+0.10 #90	+0.24 #122	JMU
Success rate	44% #58	47% #123	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	1.6 #133	7.8 #83	9.4 #120	7.1 #45	6.0 #87	13.1 #70
JMU allowed	4.8 #56	6.4 #42	11.1 #53	4.1 #34	2.4 #2	6.5 #7

JMU scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	8.4 #27	10.4 #30	18.8 #23	8.3 #31	8.0 #44	16.3 #31
GAST allowed	7.3 #111	7.5 #71	14.8 #94	6.1 #83	10.3 #127	16.4 #117

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.