California @ Wake Forest: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Fri, Nov 8, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Wake Forest · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F8 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

California

4-4 · Power #55

▲ winner

Final

Wake Forest

4-4 · Power #89

final

Closing spread

CAL -7.5

✓ CAL W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 82 pts

Model before kickoff

CAL 30–23 WAKE

✓ CAL (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAL -7.5

CloseCAL -7.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCAL -7.5

no move

CloseCAL -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

no move

Close54.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CAL -7.5 · unchangedmodel CAL -8

model CAL -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 54% (82 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAL -7.5

CloseCAL -7.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CAL as a 7.5-point road favorite at WAKE, the favorite won 10, covered 9, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CAL won 46–36; the favorite covered, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 82 points went over 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 70%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Wins above normal, covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 18.8 against an average line of 7.4; 59.4 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES @ SJSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	40–9	W	U52.5
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Very close	SC @ VAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	38–27	W	O49
Very close	ARIZ @ COLO 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-8	34–31	L	O55.5
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-8	48–31	W	O54.5
Very close	PUR @ IU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-10	30–16	W	U53
Very close	TULN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	27–13	W	U56
Very close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6	42–14	W	O53
Very close	OKST @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	43–30	W	O57.5
Very close	ARK @ MSST 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-7.5	58–25	W	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAL LWWLW	5-3	63%	2-1	2-2
WAKE LWLWW	4-3	57%	1-3	2-2

Venue/role: CAL away, as favorite; WAKE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL UOUOO	3-5	38%	4-4
WAKE OOUUU	3-4	43%	4-4

Went over in Q3. Of 300 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAL	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
WAKE	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CAL 1–1 WAKE Series tied · 2 games since 2024 · WAKE has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL+2.0 →+6.8▲ 4.8#37

WAKE−3.0 →−4.6▼ 1.6#87

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

CAL

Longer bar = better

WAKE

#83

Offense

Even

#73

#32

Defense

◀ CAL better

#114

+1.6 #2

Turnovers

◀ CAL better

0.0 #70

69 plays #46

Pace

WAKE faster ▶

72 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: CAL offense

	CAL off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #83	31.0 #104	CAL
Yards / play	5.59 #85	6.10 #106	CAL
PPA / play	+0.13 #78	+0.21 #114	CAL
Success rate	43% #85	51% #133	CAL

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: CAL defense

	WAKE off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #77	17.3 #13	CAL
Yards / play	5.57 #86	4.87 #23	CAL
PPA / play	+0.13 #75	+0.04 #41	CAL
Success rate	45% #53	40% #52	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	6.9 #52	7.5 #88	14.4 #65	7.6 #39	4.5 #121	12.1 #87
WAKE allowed	6.3 #93	11.0 #124	17.3 #113	5.6 #65	8.1 #103	13.8 #91

WAKE scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	7.1 #44	8.9 #57	16.0 #49	6.9 #51	4.3 #127	11.1 #101
CAL allowed	5.0 #60	3.4 #7	8.4 #16	1.0 #1	7.9 #97	8.9 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.