Syracuse @ California: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at California · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Syracuse

6-3 · Power #43

▲ winner

Final

California

5-4 · Power #55

final

Closing spread

CAL -10.5

✓ SYR W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

SYR 22–32 CAL

✗ CAL (77%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAL -7

CloseCAL -10.5

Total55.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCAL -7

3.5 → CAL

CloseCAL -10.5

3.5 pts toward California

Total

Open55.5

▲ 2

Close57.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CAL -7 · closed CAL -10.5 · moved 3.5 toward CALmodel CAL -8.5

model CAL -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 41% (83 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7The team the line moved toward covered 70% (20 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAL -7

CloseCAL -10.5

Total55.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CAL as a 10.5-point home favorite against SYR, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: SYR won 33–25 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 57.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16 against an average line of 10.6; 50.2 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAL vs ORST 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-13	44–7	W	P51
Very close	ASU vs USC 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.75	31–16	W	U61.5
Very close	ORST vs STAN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	35–14	W	U56.25
Very close	USA vs UL 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & season form	-11.5	20–33	L	U55
Very close	APP vs GASO 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-10.5	55–27	W	O63
Very close	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	17–26	L	U58
Very close	WSU vs ASU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	28–18	W	U59.5
Very close	VT vs GT 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-11	21–6	W	U52
Very close	NEB vs NU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-11.25	56–7	W	O51.5
Close	FLA vs MIZ 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-10.75	24–17	L	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR WWLWL	4-5	44%	2-2	3-2
CAL WWLWW	6-3	67%	3-2	3-2

Venue/role: SYR away, as underdog; CAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR OUUOO	4-5	44%	6-3
CAL OUOOO	4-5	44%	5-4

Went over in Q4. Of 287 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYR	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
CAL	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SYR 2–2 CAL Series tied · 4 games since 1967 · CAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SYR−2.1 →+2.6▲ 4.7#61

CAL+2.0 →+6.6▲ 4.6#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

SYR

Longer bar = better

CAL

#51

Offense

◀ SYR better

#68

#101

Defense

CAL better ▶

#37

−0.3 #94

Turnovers

CAL better ▶

+1.8 #2

78 plays #3

Pace

◀ SYR faster

71 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SYR has the ball

Even matchup

	SYR off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #40	19.3 #24	Even
Yards / play	5.64 #78	4.90 #28	CAL
PPA / play	+0.15 #60	+0.04 #41	Even
Success rate	47% #25	40% #54	SYR

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: CAL offense

	CAL off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #62	28.6 #94	CAL
Yards / play	5.61 #81	6.01 #99	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #62	+0.16 #103	CAL
Success rate	44% #65	44% #106	CAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SYR scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	4.2 #104	9.1 #51	13.3 #79	8.9 #19	8.0 #45	16.9 #22
CAL allowed	5.2 #67	3.8 #7	9.0 #23	1.7 #4	8.7 #111	10.3 #34

CAL scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	7.2 #39	8.8 #56	16.0 #50	7.6 #40	5.1 #116	12.7 #78
SYR allowed	6.4 #96	8.8 #92	15.2 #98	5.2 #61	7.8 #95	13.0 #79

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.