Boston College @ SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at SMU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F10 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Boston College

5-4 · Power #58

final

Final

SMU

8-1 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

SMU -19.5

✓ BC W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

BC 17–36 SMU

✓ SMU (91%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -16.5

CloseSMU -19.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -16.5

3 → SMU

CloseSMU -19.5

3 pts toward SMU

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -16.5 · closed SMU -19.5 · moved 3 toward SMUmodel SMU -17

model SMU -17

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 18.5–20.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 53% (57 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (98 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -16.5

CloseSMU -19.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 19.5-point home favorite against BC, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 38–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 28.7 against an average line of 19.2; 53.1 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ND vs PITT 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21	58–7	W	O45.5
Close	ASU vs WSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-16.5	21–34	L	O54.5
Close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	TA&M vs SC 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-17	30–17	L	U51.5
Close	TEX vs TTU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-16	57–7	W	O53.5
Close	MICH vs IU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-20.5	29–7	W	U51
Close	ND vs GT 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-18	55–0	W	U57.75
Close	UCLA vs COLO 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-18	44–20	W	O57.25
Close	ORE vs ILL 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & season form	-22.5	38–9	W	U54
Close	MICH vs NU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-23.5	33–7	W	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BC LLLWW	5-4	56%	2-2	3-2
SMU WWWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	3-3

Venue/role: BC away, as underdog; SMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BC UUOOO	4-5	44%	5-4
SMU OOUOO	4-3	57%	8-1

Went over in Q4. Of 318 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BC	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
SMU	8-2 80%	4-4 50%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BC 1–0 SMU BC leads · 1 game since 2023 · BC has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 28 2023	SMU 14 @ Boston College 23	SMU -13.5	BC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BC−1.3 →+0.5▲ 1.8#65

SMU+10.3 →+12.9▲ 2.6#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

SMU

#87

Offense

SMU better ▶

#28

#67

Defense

SMU better ▶

#18

+0.4 #37

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #48

64 plays #102

Pace

SMU faster ▶

69 plays #38

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BC has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	BC off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #75	21.8 #38	SMU
Yards / play	5.56 #83	4.83 #21	SMU
PPA / play	+0.10 #90	−0.07 #5	SMU
Success rate	41% #101	35% #7	SMU

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	40.1 #6	23.0 #56	SMU
Yards / play	6.45 #28	5.59 #69	SMU
PPA / play	+0.20 #37	+0.08 #56	Even
Success rate	45% #41	43% #88	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BC scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	4.7 #92	9.9 #41	14.6 #60	8.3 #26	4.7 #125	13.0 #71
SMU allowed	4.6 #52	5.6 #31	10.1 #33	6.7 #93	4.3 #18	11.0 #48

SMU scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	10.4 #6	13.6 #3	24.0 #2	6.4 #57	8.9 #22	15.3 #38
BC allowed	3.0 #19	9.0 #97	12.0 #66	4.1 #31	6.9 #77	11.0 #48

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.