Central Michigan @ Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Tue, Nov 12, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Toledo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff43°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Central Michigan

3-6 · Power #123

final

Final

Toledo

6-3 · Power #88

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -14.5

✓ TOL W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 19–34 TOL

✓ TOL (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -15.5

CloseTOL -14.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -15.5

1 → CMU

CloseTOL -14.5

1 pt toward Central Michigan

Total

Open48.5

▲ 3

Close51.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -15.5 · closed TOL -14.5 · moved 1 toward CMUmodel TOL -14

model TOL -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 88%, covered 54% (69 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 54% (100 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -15.5

CloseTOL -14.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 14.5-point home favorite against CMU, the favorite won 10, covered 9, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 37–10; the favorite covered, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 28.2 against an average line of 13.7; 52.8 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY vs ULM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-15	34–16	W	O48.5
Very close	TOL vs BALL 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	28–21	L	U53.5
Very close	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25
Very close	FRES vs WYO 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14	30–0	W	U50.5
Very close	M-OH vs CMU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-10.5	46–7	W	O48.5
Very close	M-OH vs BGSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-17	34–7	W	U52
Very close	WSU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-14.75	44–18	W	O52.5
Very close	WYO vs HAW 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	42–9	W	O45
Very close	TROY vs ARST 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-15.5	37–3	W	U52
Close	FAU vs FIU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-10.5	58–21	W	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU LWLLW	4-5	44%	1-3	3-2
TOL WLWLL	4-5	44%	2-2	2-5

Venue/role: CMU away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU UOOOU	6-3	67%	3-6
TOL OOUOO	7-2	78%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
TOL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CMU 0–1 TOL TOL leads · 1 game since 2023 · TOL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 24 2023	Toledo 32 @ Central Michigan 17	TOL -10	TOL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−12.0 →−15.2▼ 3.2#123

TOL−0.4 →−5.0▼ 4.6#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CMU

Longer bar = better

TOL

#83

Offense

Even

#88

#101

Defense

TOL better ▶

#41

−1.0 #126

Turnovers

TOL better ▶

−0.2 #86

63 plays #111

Pace

TOL faster ▶

68 plays #48

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	CMU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #89	22.3 #48	TOL
Yards / play	5.76 #70	5.01 #31	TOL
PPA / play	+0.14 #69	+0.06 #45	TOL
Success rate	40% #104	39% #41	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Even matchup

	TOL off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #59	31.2 #106	TOL
Yards / play	5.56 #85	6.02 #101	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #105	+0.24 #122	Even
Success rate	41% #101	42% #76	CMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	3.8 #111	9.6 #43	13.3 #77	6.6 #55	5.6 #104	12.1 #89
TOL allowed	4.6 #49	5.4 #29	10.0 #30	5.3 #62	7.0 #82	12.3 #69

TOL scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	6.2 #62	9.4 #45	15.7 #53	6.0 #69	7.4 #54	13.4 #63
CMU allowed	6.3 #94	10.4 #118	16.8 #111	5.0 #50	9.4 #120	14.4 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.