North Texas @ UTSA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Fri, Nov 15, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at UTSA · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

North Texas

5-4 · Power #94

final

Final

UTSA

4-5 · Power #82

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTSA -1.5

✓ UTSA W

Total

71.5

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

UNT 33–34 UTSA

✓ UTSA (53%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -1.5

CloseUTSA -1.5

Total71.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -1.5

3 → UTSA

CloseUTSA -1.5

3 pts toward UTSA

Total

Open71.5

no move

Close71.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -1.5 · closed UTSA -1.5 · moved 3 toward UTSAmodel UNT -0.5

model UNT -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 46% (111 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (93 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNT -1.5

CloseUTSA -1.5

Total71.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 1.5-point home favorite against UNT, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 48–27; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 71.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3 against an average line of 2.4; 59.2 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TXST vs GASO 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread	-0.25	45–24	W	O68.75
Close	GAST vs GASO 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar season form	-2.5	41–33	W	O66.5
Close	UNT vs UAB 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total	-2.5	45–42	W	O73
Close	SJSU vs USU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-4	42–21	W	U65
Close	GAST vs APP 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	14–42	L	U62.5
Close	LIB vs JXST 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread	-2.5	21–31	L	U64
Close	UL vs GAST 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-3	17–20	L	U62
Loose	ODU vs GASO 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar team ratings	-1.5	23–28	L	U66
Loose	EMU vs NIU 2022 · Week 7 · loose	-3.5	10–39	L	U64.25
Loose	FSU vs LOU 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread	-1.25	23–31	L	U60.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT WLWLL	4-4	50%	2-1	2-2
UTSA LLWLW	3-5	38%	3-0	2-2

Venue/role: UNT away, as underdog; UTSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT OOOOU	6-2	75%	5-4
UTSA UOOOO	6-2	75%	4-5

Went over in Q4. Of 14 earlier overs in games with totals 67.5–75.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	7-2 78%
UTSA	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNT 0–1 UTSA UTSA leads · 1 game since 2023 · UTSA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	UTSA 37 @ North Texas 29	UTSA -8	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT−6.3 →−3.9▲ 2.4#83

UTSA+1.0 →−6.7▼ 7.7#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UNT

Longer bar = better

UTSA

#34

Offense

◀ UNT better

#98

#109

Defense

UTSA better ▶

#63

−0.6 #107

Turnovers

UTSA better ▶

+0.1 #63

73 plays #11

Pace

Even

80 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	36.6 #17	32.6 #114	UNT
Yards / play	6.86 #10	5.71 #79	UNT
PPA / play	+0.19 #39	+0.07 #53	Even
Success rate	44% #69	35% #5	UTSA

When UTSA has the ball

Even matchup

	UTSA off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #57	34.3 #121	UTSA
Yards / play	5.30 #107	6.04 #103	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #104	+0.20 #110	Even
Success rate	37% #123	44% #100	UNT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	8.4 #23	8.7 #60	17.1 #38	11.2 #4	8.2 #36	19.4 #5
UTSA allowed	5.7 #77	10.2 #114	15.9 #104	8.4 #119	8.2 #107	16.7 #118

UTSA scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	7.6 #35	10.3 #30	17.9 #29	4.6 #102	6.9 #71	11.4 #98
UNT allowed	9.1 #129	13.2 #131	22.3 #131	5.0 #52	7.0 #82	12.0 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.