UAB @ Memphis: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Memphis · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

UAB

2-7 · Power #116

final

Final

Memphis

8-2 · Power #56

▲ winner

Closing spread

MEM -17.5

✓ MEM W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

UAB 22–40 MEM

✓ MEM (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -15.5

CloseMEM -17.5

Total62.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -15.5

2 → MEM

CloseMEM -17.5

2 pts toward Memphis

Total

Open62.5

▼ 2

Close60.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MEM -15.5 · closed MEM -17.5 · moved 2 toward MEMmodel MEM -17

model MEM -17

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 52% (71 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (100 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -15.5

CloseMEM -17.5

Total62.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 17.5-point home favorite against UAB, the favorite won 9, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MEM won 53–18; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 60.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.3 against an average line of 15.5; 47.5 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF vs TULN 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & rest	-13.5	14–10	L	U57
Very close	UCF vs HOU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-15.5	27–13	L	U61.25
Very close	MRSH vs ODU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-21	20–13	L	U62.5
Very close	USA vs ARST 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	21–14	L	U55
Close	DUKE vs KU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.25	52–33	W	O57.5
Close	TLSA vs USF 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-13.75	48–42	L	O57.5
Close	UCF vs USF 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-17	17–13	L	U62
Close	WSU vs STAN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	7–10	L	U58
Close	WKU vs RICE 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-13.5	45–10	W	U61
Close	GASO vs ULM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-16.5	38–28	L	O60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAB LLWWL	3-5	38%	1-2	1-4
MEM WLLLL	4-6	40%	2-4	3-6

Venue/role: UAB away, as underdog; MEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAB OUOOO	5-3	63%	2-7
MEM UOOOU	4-6	40%	8-2

Went over in Q4. Of 168 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UAB	2-8 20%	3-6 33%	6-3 67%
MEM	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UAB 0–1 MEM MEM leads · 1 game since 2023 · MEM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Memphis 45 @ UAB 21	MEM -7.5	MEM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UAB−6.4 →−12.8▼ 6.4#116

MEM+2.0 →+0.3▼ 1.7#66

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UAB

Longer bar = better

MEM

#85

Offense

MEM better ▶

#50

#108

Defense

MEM better ▶

#55

−1.2 #132

Turnovers

MEM better ▶

+0.9 #17

71 plays #23

Pace

Even

72 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	UAB off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #93	23.1 #57	MEM
Yards / play	5.57 #83	5.59 #69	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #116	+0.09 #62	MEM
Success rate	45% #46	38% #33	Even

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #30	35.0 #123	MEM
Yards / play	6.01 #54	5.71 #83	MEM
PPA / play	+0.19 #40	+0.22 #114	MEM
Success rate	43% #76	45% #112	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UAB scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	7.0 #41	8.6 #61	15.6 #54	4.1 #110	5.8 #101	9.9 #115
MEM allowed	5.5 #76	5.4 #26	10.9 #42	4.0 #27	8.2 #107	12.2 #68

MEM scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	6.9 #42	11.7 #13	18.6 #26	6.4 #59	8.5 #26	14.9 #46
UAB allowed	6.6 #101	9.6 #104	16.1 #108	8.9 #123	10.0 #125	18.9 #130

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.