South Florida @ Charlotte: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Charlotte · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

South Florida

4-5 · Power #91

▲ winner

Final

Charlotte

3-6 · Power #119

final

Closing spread

CLT -1.5

✓ USF W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 83 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 26–27 CLT

✗ CLT (53%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -3

CloseCLT -1.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSF -3

4.5 → CLT

CloseCLT -1.5

4.5 pts toward Charlotte

Total

Open51.5

▲ 2

Close53.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USF -3 · closed CLT -1.5 · moved 4.5 toward CLTmodel USF -0.5

model USF -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 48% (115 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (24 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -3

CloseCLT -1.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLT as a 1.5-point home favorite against USF, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: USF won 59–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 83 points went over 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.3 against an average line of 2.1; 53.7 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CONN vs USF 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	21–24	L	U57
Close	MASS vs CONN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	18–31	L	U50.75
Close	ULM vs TXST 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	31–30	L	O52.5
Close	GAST vs ODU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	14–21	L	U53.5
Close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation	-1	38–19	W	O53.5
Close	GAST vs GASO 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	21–38	L	O57
Close	USU vs SJSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-1	35–31	W	O51
Close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Close	WSU vs STAN 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-1	34–31	W	O53
Close	RUTG vs MD 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-2	16–40	L	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF LLLWL	2-5	29%	2-1	1-4
CLT WWLWL	4-3	57%	1-1	—

Venue/role: USF away, as underdog; CLT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF UUOOU	3-4	43%	4-5
CLT UOOOU	5-2	71%	3-6

Went over in Q3. Of 318 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	5-5 50%	3-5 38%	3-5 38%
CLT	3-7 30%	4-4 50%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USF 1–0 CLT USF leads · 1 game since 2023 · USF has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Charlotte 14 @ South Florida 48	USF -7	USF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−4.4 →−7.3▼ 2.9#98

CLT−9.5 →−10.5▼ 1.0#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

USF

Longer bar = better

CLT

#112

Offense

Even

#115

#82

Defense

◀ USF better

#114

+0.1 #62

Turnovers

◀ USF better

−0.8 #120

71 plays #25

Pace

◀ USF faster

62 plays #122

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Even matchup

	USF off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #95	34.2 #118	USF
Yards / play	5.21 #114	6.14 #110	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #114	+0.22 #117	Even
Success rate	37% #125	45% #109	Even

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: USF defense

	CLT off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #117	28.8 #95	USF
Yards / play	5.32 #104	5.94 #97	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #119	+0.14 #88	USF
Success rate	38% #120	39% #46	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USF scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	4.4 #97	7.1 #96	11.6 #104	8.7 #20	5.0 #117	13.7 #61
CLT allowed	6.7 #104	10.3 #116	17.0 #112	8.7 #121	8.6 #110	17.2 #124

CLT scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	2.7 #126	6.3 #112	9.0 #123	3.8 #116	8.6 #28	12.3 #87
USF allowed	9.7 #131	6.9 #54	16.6 #110	3.4 #16	8.8 #113	12.2 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.