Oregon State @ Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Air Force

Weather at kickoff48°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Oregon State

4-5 · Power #98

final

Final

Air Force

2-7 · Power #108

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORST -2.5

✓ AFA W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

ORST 24–21 AFA

✗ ORST (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORST -4.5

CloseORST -2.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORST -4.5

2 → AFA

CloseORST -2.5

2 pts toward Air Force

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORST -4.5 · closed ORST -2.5 · moved 2 toward AFAmodel ORST -4.5

model ORST -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 45% (134 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (39 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORST -4.5

CloseORST -2.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as a 2.5-point road favorite at AFA, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: AFA won 28–0 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 28 points stayed under 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.6 against an average line of 3.8; 52.4 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TLSA @ NAVY 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	21–53	L	O45.75
Very close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Very close	CSU @ AFA 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	21–13	W	U44
Very close	FAU @ CLT 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	38–16	W	O45
Very close	ECU @ NAVY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	38–35	L	O46.5
Very close	RICE @ CLT 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-1	28–7	W	U46.5
Very close	SHSU @ FIU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-5	10–7	L	U47
Close	USU @ CONN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	34–33	L	O51
Close	USF @ TEM 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	28–54	L	O49
Close	FAU @ UTEP 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	21–24	L	U50.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORST LLLLL	2-6	25%	1-2	2-4
AFA LLLWW	2-7	22%	1-4	2-4

Venue/role: ORST away, as favorite; AFA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORST OOUOU	4-4	50%	4-5
AFA OOUUO	4-5	44%	2-7

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORST	4-6 40%	2-7 22%	5-4 56%
AFA	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORST+7.8 →−4.7▼ 12.5#91

AFA−9.1 →−15.2▼ 6.1#122

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ORST

Longer bar = better

AFA

#74

Offense

◀ ORST better

#129

#114

Defense

AFA better ▶

#95

−0.6 #110

Turnovers

AFA better ▶

−0.3 #93

74 plays #9

Pace

◀ ORST faster

68 plays #48

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORST has the ball

Even matchup

	ORST off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #90	26.7 #82	Even
Yards / play	5.56 #84	6.18 #113	ORST
PPA / play	+0.11 #84	+0.16 #97	Even
Success rate	45% #39	43% #87	ORST

When AFA has the ball

Even matchup

	AFA off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	16.2 #133	28.8 #96	ORST
Yards / play	4.28 #135	6.66 #127	Even
PPA / play	−0.05 #128	+0.23 #119	Even
Success rate	38% #121	46% #115	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ORST scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	4.2 #104	8.3 #69	12.6 #90	3.4 #123	8.1 #38	11.6 #98
AFA allowed	6.1 #91	6.9 #54	13.0 #73	7.6 #112	6.1 #61	13.7 #90

AFA scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	2.7 #126	6.3 #112	9.0 #123	1.0 #134	6.2 #86	7.2 #130
ORST allowed	5.2 #68	8.0 #75	13.2 #77	4.4 #40	10.3 #127	14.8 #109

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.