San Diego State @ UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at UNLV · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

San Diego State

3-6 · Power #122

final

Final

UNLV

7-2 · Power #42

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNLV -19.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 17–37 UNLV

✓ UNLV (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -20.5

CloseUNLV -19.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -20.5

1 → SDSU

CloseUNLV -19.5

1 pt toward San Diego State

Total

Open52.5

▲ 2

Close54.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -20.5 · closed UNLV -19.5 · moved 1 toward SDSUmodel UNLV -23.5

model UNLV -23.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 18.5–20.5 since 2023: won 97%, covered 52% (58 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 54% (109 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -20.5

CloseUNLV -19.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 19.5-point home favorite against SDSU, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 41–20; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.8 against an average line of 19.8; 53.8 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSU vs HAW 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-18.5	42–10	W	U55.5
Very close	LIB vs MTSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-20	41–13	W	U58.75
Very close	NCST vs LT 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-17.75	34–27	L	O56
Very close	UL vs ULM 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-21.5	21–16	L	U55.25
Very close	ASU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-20	38–15	W	P53
Very close	AFA vs UNLV 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	48–14	W	O49.5
Very close	FRES vs UNM 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-22.5	17–25	L	U58.5
Very close	NEV vs UNLV 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-19	51–20	W	O58.25
Very close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & situation	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Close	FRES vs UNM 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-24	34–7	W	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU WWWLL	4-4	50%	2-2	3-3
UNLV LLWLL	4-4	50%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: SDSU away, as underdog; UNLV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU OOUOU	3-5	38%	3-6
UNLV OOUUO	5-3	63%	7-2

Went over in Q4. Of 322 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%
UNLV	7-3 70%	4-5 44%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU−8.3 →−12.1▼ 3.8#113

UNLV−2.0 →+5.9▲ 7.9#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

SDSU

Longer bar = better

UNLV

#115

Offense

UNLV better ▶

#27

#89

Defense

UNLV better ▶

#42

+0.3 #49

Turnovers

UNLV better ▶

+1.3 #4

67 plays #76

Pace

◀ SDSU faster

65 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: UNLV defense

	SDSU off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #114	23.8 #62	UNLV
Yards / play	4.97 #122	5.25 #46	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.08 #95	+0.04 #36	UNLV
Success rate	37% #127	38% #25	UNLV

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	39.8 #7	26.9 #82	UNLV
Yards / play	6.59 #18	5.64 #75	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.25 #18	+0.16 #100	UNLV
Success rate	44% #64	44% #97	UNLV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	3.9 #107	6.8 #105	10.7 #113	3.8 #117	7.3 #58	11.1 #103
UNLV allowed	5.3 #74	5.2 #20	10.6 #37	6.1 #87	6.4 #67	12.6 #73

UNLV scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	10.1 #7	11.2 #20	21.3 #7	8.6 #23	9.6 #16	18.1 #12
SDSU allowed	8.4 #124	4.9 #15	13.3 #81	5.0 #52	8.6 #111	13.6 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.