Boise State @ San José State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at San José State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F4 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Boise State

8-1 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

San José State

6-3 · Power #86

final

Closing spread

BOIS -14.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

61.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

BOIS 38–24 SJSU

✓ BOIS (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -14.5

CloseBOIS -14.5

Total60.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -14.5

no move

CloseBOIS -14.5

No change since the open

Total

Open60.5

▲ 1

Close61.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -14.5 · unchangedmodel BOIS -13

model BOIS -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–16.5 since 2023: won 86%, covered 48% (64 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -14.5

CloseBOIS -14.5

Total60.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 14.5-point road favorite at SJSU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 42–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 61.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.9 against an average line of 14; 66.5 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SMU @ RICE 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	36–31	L	O59
Very close	PITT @ SYR 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-12.25	31–14	W	U58.25
Very close	UNC @ GT 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12	42–46	L	O65
Very close	UCLA @ CAL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-11.5	35–28	L	O62.5
Close	ORE @ CAL 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-16.75	42–24	W	O56.5
Close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Close	CIN @ ECU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-14.5	35–13	W	U56.5
Close	CCU @ USA 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-15	27–21	L	U55
Close	MRSH @ CLT 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	49–28	W	O62
Close	MISS @ VAN 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-17	52–28	W	O59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS WWWWL	6-2	75%	3-1	5-2
SJSU LLLLW	4-4	50%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: BOIS away, as favorite; SJSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS OUUOU	5-3	63%	8-1
SJSU OOUUU	3-5	38%	6-3

Went over in Q4. Of 150 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOIS	8-2 80%	6-3 67%	6-3 67%
SJSU	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BOIS 1–0 SJSU BOIS leads · 1 game since 2023 · BOIS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	San José State 27 @ Boise State 35	BOIS -8	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BOIS+2.2 →+10.5▲ 8.3#21

SJSU−2.2 →−4.2▼ 2.0#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

BOIS

Longer bar = better

SJSU

Offense

◀ BOIS better

#49

#61

Defense

SJSU better ▶

#44

+0.4 #35

Turnovers

◀ BOIS better

+0.2 #55

69 plays #36

Pace

◀ BOIS faster

66 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	43.8 #3	24.1 #65	BOIS
Yards / play	7.17 #3	5.11 #37	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.39 #3	0.00 #19	Even
Success rate	49% #9	40% #53	BOIS

When SJSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SJSU off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #60	25.1 #70	Even
Yards / play	6.50 #25	5.56 #67	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.17 #50	+0.10 #69	Even
Success rate	44% #61	39% #39	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BOIS scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	10.3 #7	14.6 #1	24.9 #1	5.8 #76	13.1 #2	18.9 #6
SJSU allowed	5.3 #70	7.6 #71	12.9 #71	5.0 #53	5.3 #42	10.3 #35

SJSU scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	6.6 #52	7.7 #81	14.2 #66	5.0 #90	8.9 #21	13.9 #61
BOIS allowed	4.6 #54	7.1 #57	11.7 #59	5.3 #62	8.1 #106	13.4 #87

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.