Nevada @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Boise State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff43°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Nevada

3-7 · Power #102

final

Final

Boise State

7-1 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

BOIS -23.5

✓ NEV W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

NEV 18–42 BOIS

✓ BOIS (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -26.5

CloseBOIS -23.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -26.5

3 → NEV

CloseBOIS -23.5

3 pts toward Nevada

Total

Open60.5

no move

Close60.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -26.5 · closed BOIS -23.5 · moved 3 toward NEVmodel BOIS -26

model BOIS -26

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 22.5–24.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 45% (45 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 46% (74 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -26.5

CloseBOIS -23.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 23.5-point home favorite against NEV, the favorite won 10, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 28–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 60.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.8 against an average line of 23.9; 56 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MISS vs VAN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & total	-24	33–7	W	U63
Close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-24.5	27–3	L	U55
Close	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Close	BOIS vs SDSU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & rest	-24.5	56–24	W	O55.5
Close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Close	TULN vs RICE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation	-21.5	24–10	L	U53
Close	LIB vs MASS 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-26.5	49–25	L	O63.5
Close	CLEM vs UVA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-20	48–31	L	O57.5
Close	CIN vs TLSA 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-22.5	28–20	L	U56
Close	FSU vs VT 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-24	39–17	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV WWLLL	5-5	50%	2-2	4-4
BOIS WWWWW	6-1	86%	3-0	5-1

Venue/role: NEV away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV OOUOO	6-4	60%	3-7
BOIS OOUUO	5-2	71%	7-1

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 44% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEV	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
BOIS	8-2 80%	7-2 78%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NEV 6–20 BOIS BOIS leads · 26 games since 1993 · BOIS has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEV−15.0 →−8.7▲ 6.3#103

BOIS+2.2 →+12.0▲ 9.8#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

NEV

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#63

Offense

BOIS better ▶

#103

Defense

BOIS better ▶

#65

−0.1 #76

Turnovers

BOIS better ▶

+0.5 #38

65 plays #92

Pace

BOIS faster ▶

70 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEV has the ball

Even matchup

	NEV off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #100	25.6 #76	BOIS
Yards / play	5.97 #59	5.55 #68	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #56	+0.12 #76	Even
Success rate	46% #37	39% #40	Even

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	45.8 #1	28.6 #95	BOIS
Yards / play	7.33 #3	6.00 #97	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.43 #2	+0.20 #108	BOIS
Success rate	49% #9	45% #112	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NEV scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	5.6 #77	5.8 #119	11.4 #104	6.7 #53	6.5 #81	13.2 #69
BOIS allowed	4.3 #48	7.1 #59	11.4 #59	6.0 #77	8.3 #105	14.3 #102

BOIS scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	9.9 #10	16.4 #1	26.3 #1	5.6 #78	13.9 #1	19.5 #5
NEV allowed	6.5 #98	8.8 #94	15.3 #97	5.5 #65	7.8 #99	13.3 #85

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.