Washington @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Penn State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff39°F5 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Washington

5-4 · Power #31

final

Final

Penn State

7-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

PSU -13.5

✓ PSU W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

WASH 17–30 PSU

✓ PSU (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -13.5

ClosePSU -13.5

Total45.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -13.5

no move

ClosePSU -13.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▲ 3

Close48.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -13.5 · unchangedmodel PSU -13

model PSU -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 82%, covered 45% (72 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -13.5

ClosePSU -13.5

Total45.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 13.5-point home favorite against WASH, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 35–6; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.7 against an average line of 13.5; 54.1 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs SC 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	30–31	L	O53
Very close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5
Very close	ISU vs UCF 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13	38–35	L	O49.5
Close	FSU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	38–20	W	O49
Close	WISC vs NEB 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-10	35–28	L	O43.5
Close	PSU vs IU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.25	24–0	W	U54
Close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-10	29–27	L	P56
Close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Close	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-19	40–10	W	O47.5
Close	TEX vs TTU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-16	57–7	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WASH LWLLW	3-4	43%	0-3	1-3
PSU LLLWL	2-5	29%	0-4	2-4

Venue/role: WASH away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH UOOUU	2-5	29%	5-4
PSU UUOUU	2-5	29%	7-1

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASH	5-5 50%	3-5 38%	2-6 25%
PSU	8-2 80%	3-6 33%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WASH+12.9 →+10.9▼ 2.0#22

PSU+18.8 →+18.3▼ 0.5#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

WASH

Longer bar = better

PSU

#42

Offense

PSU better ▶

#22

#24

Defense

Even

#12

+0.3 #49

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #46

67 plays #74

Pace

◀ WASH faster

64 plays #99

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	WASH off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #103	15.0 #8	PSU
Yards / play	6.44 #32	4.63 #9	PSU
PPA / play	+0.24 #22	+0.01 #24	Even
Success rate	49% #10	35% #7	Even

When PSU has the ball

Even matchup

	PSU off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #49	19.0 #21	WASH
Yards / play	6.88 #11	4.62 #8	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #20	−0.01 #18	Even
Success rate	50% #7	39% #47	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WASH scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	3.8 #111	9.4 #45	13.2 #81	4.8 #94	5.6 #104	10.3 #111
PSU allowed	4.3 #48	6.3 #43	10.5 #40	1.1 #2	3.4 #7	4.5 #3

PSU scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	4.3 #101	9.8 #41	14.0 #66	8.6 #25	7.8 #49	16.4 #29
WASH allowed	3.0 #18	7.3 #65	10.3 #36	4.9 #45	3.8 #9	8.7 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.