Michigan @ Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Indiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Michigan

5-4 · Power #27

final

Final

Indiana

9-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

IU -14.5

✓ MICH W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

MICH 17–31 IU

✓ IU (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -14

CloseIU -14.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -14

0.5 → IU

CloseIU -14.5

0.5 pts toward Indiana

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -14 · closed IU -14.5 · moved 0.5 toward IUmodel IU -15.5

model IU -15.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 88%, covered 52% (65 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -14

CloseIU -14.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 14.5-point home favorite against MICH, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: IU won 20–15; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.6 against an average line of 14.4; 56.8 points a game (usually 54). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX vs ISU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-15.5	24–21	L	U48.5
Very close	TENN vs UK 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-17.5	28–18	L	O45.5
Very close	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	44–17	W	O50
Close	MISS vs AUB 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-15.5	48–34	L	O55
Close	MD vs ILL 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	24–27	L	U52
Close	ISU vs BAY 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	43–21	W	O45
Close	USC vs WIS 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-13.5	38–21	W	O50
Close	TENN vs FLA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	23–17	L	U55.5
Close	ISU vs UCF 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	38–35	L	O49.5
Close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH LLLWL	2-5	29%	0-2	1-3
IU WWWWW	8-1	89%	5-1	8-1

Venue/role: MICH away, as underdog; IU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH OOUOO	6-1	86%	5-4
IU OOOUO	7-2	78%	9-0

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 54% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICH	6-4 60%	3-5 38%	6-2 75%
IU	9-1 90%	9-1 90%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MICH 62–11 IU MICH leads · 73 games since 1900 · IU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Indiana 7 @ Michigan 52	MICH -32.5	MICH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+21.1 →+5.7▼ 15.4#43

IU−3.2 →+17.6▲ 20.8#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MICH

Longer bar = better

#107

Offense

IU better ▶

#61

Defense

IU better ▶

#11

−0.6 #106

Turnovers

IU better ▶

+1.1 #11

59 plays #131

Pace

IU faster ▶

67 plays #74

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	MICH off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #119	13.7 #7	IU
Yards / play	5.05 #120	4.31 #3	IU
PPA / play	+0.06 #107	−0.03 #10	IU
Success rate	43% #80	38% #24	IU

When IU has the ball

Advantage: IU offense

	IU off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	46.6 #2	23.3 #57	IU
Yards / play	7.13 #5	5.22 #44	IU
PPA / play	+0.40 #5	+0.15 #94	IU
Success rate	57% #1	40% #48	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	3.9 #109	7.8 #81	11.7 #101	4.0 #112	5.3 #113	9.3 #118
IU allowed	1.1 #1	6.9 #52	8.0 #11	3.4 #20	2.2 #1	5.7 #5

IU scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	9.7 #14	13.9 #3	23.6 #5	10.2 #12	12.8 #3	23.0 #2
MICH allowed	3.4 #30	7.4 #67	10.9 #46	3.9 #25	8.6 #108	12.4 #73

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.