Baylor @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Iowa State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F14 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Baylor

2-3 · Power #39

final

Final

Iowa State

4-0 · Power #24

▲ winner

Closing spread

ISU -12.5

✓ ISU W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

BAY 16–29 ISU

✓ ISU (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -12.5

CloseISU -12.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -12.5

no move

CloseISU -12.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -12.5 · unchangedmodel ISU -13.5

model ISU -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 46% (47 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -12.5

CloseISU -12.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 12.5-point home favorite against BAY, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 43–21; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.6 against an average line of 13; 51.2 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Very close	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14	44–17	W	O50
Very close	NCST vs SYR 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	41–17	W	O49.5
Very close	BAY vs TTU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	27–24	L	U51.5
Close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	56–28	W	O53.5
Close	MINN vs RUTG 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	31–0	W	U40.5
Close	IOWA vs PUR 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-11	7–24	L	U42.5
Close	TROY vs UL 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-15.5	31–24	L	O47.5
Close	TEX vs ISU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-15.5	24–21	L	U48.5
Close	AFA vs SDSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	49–10	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAY WWWLL	3-2	60%	1-1	1-1
ISU LWWW	3-1	75%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: BAY away, as underdog; ISU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAY UUUOO	2-3	40%	2-3
ISU UOOU	2-2	50%	4-0

Went over in Q3. Of 202 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAY	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
ISU	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BAY 0–1 ISU ISU leads · 1 game since 2023 · ISU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Iowa State 30 @ Baylor 18	ISU -3	ISU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAY−3.0 →+1.2▲ 4.2#64

ISU+4.2 →+10.9▲ 6.7#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

BAY

Longer bar = better

ISU

#95

Offense

ISU better ▶

#56

#27

Defense

ISU better ▶

#11

−0.6 #106

Turnovers

ISU better ▶

+1.8 #5

66 plays #67

Pace

◀ BAY faster

63 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAY has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	BAY off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #70	7.3 #4	ISU
Yards / play	5.55 #92	4.18 #12	ISU
PPA / play	+0.01 #111	−0.15 #5	ISU
Success rate	39% #108	35% #23	ISU

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: BAY defense

	ISU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #76	20.2 #45	BAY
Yards / play	6.36 #42	4.49 #21	BAY
PPA / play	+0.23 #39	+0.01 #34	Even
Success rate	43% #67	33% #8	BAY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BAY scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	6.8 #62	8.2 #69	15.0 #66	8.0 #42	6.4 #79	14.4 #55
ISU allowed	1.8 #9	2.3 #8	4.0 #5	1.5 #10	1.8 #5	3.3 #4

ISU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	6.0 #76	6.0 #102	12.0 #95	7.0 #60	9.3 #29	16.3 #37
BAY allowed	9.0 #124	5.8 #45	14.8 #96	2.6 #15	1.4 #2	4.0 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.