USC @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Minnesota · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F12 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

USC

3-1 · Power #16

final

Final

Minnesota

2-3 · Power #26

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -9.5

✓ MINN W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 28–19 MINN

✗ USC (75%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -9.5

CloseUSC -9.5

Total51.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -9.5

no move

CloseUSC -9.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

▼ 7

Close44.5

Down 7 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -9.5 · unchangedmodel USC -9.5 matches the line

model USC -9.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–11.5 since 2023: won 80%, covered 61% (70 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -9.5

CloseUSC -9.5

Total51.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 9.5-point road favorite at MINN, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MINN won 24–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 7.6; 44.6 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX @ ISU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	26–16	W	U44.5
Close	CLEM @ SC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	16–7	W	U48.25
Close	ORE @ WASH 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	26–16	W	U48
Loose	AFA @ UNLV 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & rest	-10	42–7	W	U50
Loose	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Loose	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	19–24	L	P43
Loose	PITT @ WMU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-10	34–13	W	O46
Loose	CLEM @ ND 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form	-3.5	14–35	L	O43.5
Loose	FSU @ FLA 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-6.5	24–15	W	U48.5
Loose	TOL @ BGSU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & rest	-10	32–31	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC WWLW	3-1	75%	0-1	2-1
MINN LWWLW	3-2	60%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: USC away, as favorite; MINN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC UUOO	2-2	50%	3-1
MINN UOUOO	3-2	60%	2-3

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MINN	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+10.9 →+16.5▲ 5.6#11

MINN−1.4 →+4.3▲ 5.7#47

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

USC

Longer bar = better

MINN

#35

Offense

◀ USC better

#77

#46

Defense

MINN better ▶

#19

0.0 #69

Turnovers

MINN better ▶

+0.6 #42

73 plays #11

Pace

◀ USC faster

62 plays #111

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Even matchup

	USC off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #39	15.4 #22	Even
Yards / play	6.28 #47	3.98 #6	MINN
PPA / play	+0.25 #31	−0.04 #24	Even
Success rate	49% #24	35% #25	Even

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: USC defense

	MINN off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #90	17.0 #30	USC
Yards / play	5.29 #103	5.47 #73	USC
PPA / play	+0.17 #64	−0.01 #31	USC
Success rate	45% #51	38% #51	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USC scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	4.3 #95	8.3 #68	12.5 #88	9.5 #20	12.3 #7	21.8 #7
MINN allowed	2.8 #25	4.2 #22	7.0 #12	5.2 #62	3.2 #20	8.4 #32

MINN scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	1.8 #132	11.8 #24	13.6 #78	4.2 #105	8.2 #44	12.4 #80
USC allowed	3.5 #37	7.8 #75	11.3 #59	3.3 #28	2.5 #9	5.8 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.