Indiana @ Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Northwestern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F15 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Indiana

5-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Northwestern

2-2 · Power #83

final

Closing spread

IU -12.5

✓ IU W

Total

38.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

IU 27–15 NU

✓ IU (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -13

CloseIU -12.5

Total43.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -13

0.5 → NU

CloseIU -12.5

0.5 pts toward Northwestern

Total

Open43.5

▼ 5

Close38.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -13 · closed IU -12.5 · moved 0.5 toward NUmodel IU -13.5

model IU -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–14.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 56% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -13

CloseIU -12.5

Total43.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 12.5-point road favorite at NU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: IU won 41–24; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 38.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.6 against an average line of 12; 46 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	AFA @ NAVY 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-11	17–6	P	U34
Loose	LOU @ PITT 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	21–38	L	O45
Loose	MICH @ IOWA 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & spread	-10.5	27–14	W	U42
Loose	PSU @ ILL 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & season form	-14	30–13	W	U47.5
Loose	MICH @ NEB 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-17	45–7	W	O39.5
Loose	PSU @ IU 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-13.5	45–14	W	O50
Loose	SDSU @ SJSU 2021 · Week 7 · loose	-9.75	19–13	L	U41
Loose	LSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-8	21–17	L	U44.5
Loose	AFA @ WYO 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar season form & situation	-16.5	14–17	L	U47
Loose	ARIZ @ ASU 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread	-12.5	59–23	W	O49.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU LWWWW	4-1	80%	1-0	4-1
NU WLL–	1-2	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: IU away, as favorite; NU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU UOOOO	4-1	80%	5-0
NU UOU–	1-2	33%	2-2

Went over in Q3. Of 56 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–42.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IU	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
NU	7-3 70%	7-2 78%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU−3.2 →+11.2▲ 14.4#20

NU0.0 →−3.7▼ 3.7#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ IU better

#125

#20

Defense

◀ IU better

#49

+0.6 #44

Turnovers

◀ IU better

0.0 #81

68 plays #57

Pace

◀ IU faster

64 plays #94

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Advantage: IU offense

	IU off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	48.8 #3	15.8 #23	Even
Yards / play	7.59 #9	4.81 #36	IU
PPA / play	+0.44 #7	+0.03 #46	IU
Success rate	59% #2	42% #89	IU

When NU has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	NU off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #125	13.0 #13	IU
Yards / play	4.64 #126	4.16 #11	IU
PPA / play	−0.12 #134	−0.03 #27	IU
Success rate	38% #114	36% #30	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

IU scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	13.2 #6	12.6 #19	25.8 #8	10.4 #13	12.6 #5	23.0 #4
NU allowed	4.3 #59	4.3 #27	8.5 #33	0.8 #4	3.3 #25	4.0 #6

NU scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	3.3 #115	4.0 #125	7.3 #126	5.0 #93	3.3 #127	8.3 #121
IU allowed	0.0 #1	7.6 #75	7.6 #20	3.4 #27	2.0 #7	5.4 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.