Ole Miss @ South Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at South Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F8 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Ole Miss

4-1 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

South Carolina

3-1 · Power #13

final

Closing spread

MISS -10.5

✓ MISS W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

MISS 31–21 SC

✓ MISS (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -10

CloseMISS -10.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -10

0.5 → MISS

CloseMISS -10.5

0.5 pts toward Ole Miss

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -10 · closed MISS -10.5 · moved 0.5 toward MISSmodel MISS -10.5 matches the line

model MISS -10.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–12.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 57% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -10

CloseMISS -10.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 10.5-point road favorite at SC, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 27–3; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.5 against an average line of 10.1; 52.7 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OU @ CIN 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-14	20–6	P	U57.5
Close	UGA @ AUB 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-14.5	34–10	W	U45.5
Close	KSU @ BYU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation	-7.5	9–38	L	U49.5
Close	MICH @ IOWA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	27–14	W	U42
Close	ALA @ LSU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation	-13.5	31–32	L	O56.5
Loose	ND @ NCSU 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar total	-7	45–24	W	O49.5
Loose	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-6	20–33	L	U54
Loose	MICH @ MSU 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & rest	-4	33–37	L	O50.5
Loose	WASH @ MSU 2023 · Week 3 · loose	-15	41–7	W	U57.25
Loose	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar total & situation	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MISS WWWWL	4-1	80%	1-0	4-1
SC LWWW	3-1	75%	2-1	2-0

Venue/role: MISS away, as favorite; SC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS OUUUU	1-4	20%	4-1
SC UUOO	2-2	50%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISS	8-2 80%	5-3-2 63%	4-6 40%
SC	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+12.8 →+20.9▲ 8.1#6

SC+5.6 →+8.8▲ 3.2#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

MISS

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ MISS better

#77

Defense

◀ MISS better

#26

+0.6 #43

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #38

72 plays #25

Pace

◀ MISS faster

68 plays #58

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	47.4 #7	17.0 #32	MISS
Yards / play	8.46 #2	4.10 #10	Even
PPA / play	+0.52 #3	−0.06 #16	Even
Success rate	58% #3	38% #47	MISS

When SC has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	SC off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #40	8.4 #5	MISS
Yards / play	5.51 #96	3.71 #3	MISS
PPA / play	+0.16 #73	−0.05 #20	MISS
Success rate	40% #98	31% #3	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MISS scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	17.0 #3	10.4 #43	27.4 #3	13.2 #4	6.8 #69	20.0 #16
SC allowed	1.8 #11	7.3 #70	9.0 #40	3.8 #34	4.3 #44	8.0 #28

SC scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	9.8 #21	7.5 #83	17.3 #49	6.0 #79	11.0 #11	17.0 #31
MISS allowed	1.2 #7	4.0 #22	5.2 #10	1.2 #6	2.0 #7	3.2 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.