Tennessee @ Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Arkansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Tennessee

4-0 · Power #11

final

Final

Arkansas

3-2 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

TENN -14.5

✓ ARK W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

TENN 36–21 ARK

✗ TENN (85%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -13.5

CloseTENN -14.5

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTENN -13.5

1 → TENN

CloseTENN -14.5

1 pt toward Tennessee

Total

Open60.5

▼ 3

Close57.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TENN -13.5 · closed TENN -14.5 · moved 1 toward TENNmodel TENN -14

model TENN -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–16.5 since 2023: won 89%, covered 55% (47 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (51 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -13.5

CloseTENN -14.5

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 14.5-point road favorite at ARK, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARK won 19–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 19.5 against an average line of 15.5; 57.5 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OU @ CIN 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar season form & spread	-14	20–6	P	U57.5
Close	OSU @ PSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-15.5	44–31	L	O60.5
Close	WASH @ MSU 2023 · Week 3 · close	-15	41–7	W	U57.25
Loose	ALA @ ARK 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & spread	-17	49–26	W	O61
Loose	MIA @ USF 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form	-16.5	50–15	W	O64.5
Loose	ALA @ LSU 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & situation	-13.5	31–32	L	O56.5
Loose	WASH @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-20	31–24	L	U67
Loose	MSST @ ARIZ 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar total	-12.5	39–17	W	U58
Loose	CIN @ ECU 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread & total	-14.5	35–13	W	U56.5
Loose	UGA @ MSST 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread & situation	-16.25	45–19	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TENN WWWW	4-0	100%	1-0	4-0
ARK WW–WW	4-0	100%	—	3-0

Venue/role: TENN away, as favorite; ARK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN OOOU	3-1	75%	4-0
ARK OO–UU	2-2	50%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENN	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
ARK	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TENN 15–7 ARK TENN leads · 22 games since 1907 · TENN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TENN+13.9 →+22.5▲ 8.6#5

ARK+3.1 →+6.8▲ 3.7#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

TENN

Longer bar = better

ARK

#13

Offense

◀ TENN better

#43

Defense

◀ TENN better

#45

+0.5 #49

Turnovers

◀ TENN better

−0.4 #91

78 plays #4

Pace

Even

76 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	54.0 #1	20.2 #44	TENN
Yards / play	7.30 #12	5.19 #55	TENN
PPA / play	+0.35 #14	−0.03 #28	Even
Success rate	49% #23	39% #54	TENN

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	ARK off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	35.8 #33	7.0 #2	TENN
Yards / play	6.50 #36	3.13 #1	TENN
PPA / play	+0.17 #63	−0.29 #1	TENN
Success rate	47% #39	29% #1	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TENN scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	19.5 #1	17.8 #2	37.3 #1	8.3 #36	8.5 #41	16.8 #32
ARK allowed	3.4 #33	4.8 #29	8.2 #29	2.6 #15	7.8 #102	10.4 #48

ARK scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	11.8 #11	10.4 #45	22.2 #15	4.2 #105	9.4 #26	13.6 #68
TENN allowed	0.8 #4	0.8 #2	1.5 #1	2.5 #14	3.0 #18	5.5 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.